{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.38 vs. cons $2.32",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment Management net cash flow",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-$6.0B vs. cons -$3.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Specialty Benefits incurred loss ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~60.2% vs. cons 61.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~10.5% vs. cons 9.9% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Specialty Benefits incurred loss ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~60.0% vs. cons 61.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital deployment",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.65B vs. cons $1.65B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.1,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.4,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "The roughly $0.06 Q2 EPS beat versus consensus is outweighed by an estimated -$6.0B Investment Management flow result versus -$3.0B consensus. Weak organic flows and normalization of underwriting benefits are likely to reduce FY2027 EPS estimates by roughly $0.10, producing negative revision follow-through despite unchanged FY2026 targets.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}