| PHM |
Report |
EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.36 |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Report |
Home-sale gross margin (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~24.4% vs. cons 24.3% |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Report |
Net new orders (units, Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~7,600 vs. cons 7,383 |
LOW |
| PHM |
Guide |
FY26 gross margin |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~24.5-25% (low end) vs. cons ~24.6% (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
FY26 deliveries |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~28,500-29,000 vs. cons ~28,700 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
FY26 ASP |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$550-560k vs. cons ~$553k (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
Q3'26 gross margin / incentive trajectory (back-half recovery credibility) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~24.5-25% recovery vs. cons ~24.7% (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| PHM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
Quarter is guided-to a margin trough and the stock has already de-risked ~10% off its late-June high, so a modest EPS/orders beat plus reaffirmed FY guide drives a relief pop on day 1. But the out-period math is unfavorable: FY26 gross margin is explicitly 'likely toward the low end' of 24.5-25%, 2026 EPS is still down y/y, and the back-half margin recovery leans on a build-to-order/active-adult mix shift that remains a show-me story. As sell-side trims out-quarter margin/EPS after digesting the incentive load (~10.9%) and low-end FY tone, the initial gain partially fades over the week, leaving a small positive residual. |
MEDIUM |