{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.36",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Home-sale gross margin (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~24.4% vs. cons 24.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net new orders (units, Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~7,600 vs. cons 7,383",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 gross margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~24.5-25% (low end) vs. cons ~24.6% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 deliveries",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~28,500-29,000 vs. cons ~28,700 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 ASP",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$550-560k vs. cons ~$553k (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 gross margin / incentive trajectory (back-half recovery credibility)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~24.5-25% recovery vs. cons ~24.7% (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Quarter is guided-to a margin trough and the stock has already de-risked ~10% off its late-June high, so a modest EPS/orders beat plus reaffirmed FY guide drives a relief pop on day 1. But the out-period math is unfavorable: FY26 gross margin is explicitly 'likely toward the low end' of 24.5-25%, 2026 EPS is still down y/y, and the back-half margin recovery leans on a build-to-order/active-adult mix shift that remains a show-me story. As sell-side trims out-quarter margin/EPS after digesting the incentive load (~10.9%) and low-end FY tone, the initial gain partially fades over the week, leaving a small positive residual.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}