| PHM |
Report |
Q2 2026 EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.32 vs. cons $2.36 |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Home Sale Gross Margin |
IN-LINE |
pred ~24.3% vs. cons 24.3% |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Net New Orders (units) |
MISS |
pred ~7,150 vs. cons 7,383 |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
FY2026 Home Sale Gross Margin guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~24.5% vs. cons ~24.7% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
FY2026 Closings guidance (28,500-29,000 unit range) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~28,750 vs. cons ~28,800 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Gross Margin guide / back-half recovery confirmation |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~24.6% vs. cons ~24.6% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PHM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.6% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PHM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Peer DHI's beat-but-guide-cut on 7/21 was punished (~-0.9% idiosyncratic) despite an EPS beat, showing the market is currently fixated on order/volume deceleration and margin-guide direction over headline EPS. PHM's own FY26 GM guide sitting at/near the low end of 24.5%-25.0% and order growth likely decelerating from Q1's +3% (with sector-wide 'light orders' commentary from DHI) gives sell-side cover to trim FY26/FY27 EPS estimates even if Q2 prints roughly in-line. That implicit estimate-cut dynamic (via lower full-year GM/ASP mix and cautious Q3 order commentary) should keep pressure on the stock through the week rather than a snap-back, consistent with a follow-through fade rather than stabilization, though the size is capped by how much bad news (10%+ pre-print pullback, 21% EPS decline already consensus) is already priced in. |
MEDIUM |