{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.32 vs. cons $2.36",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Home Sale Gross Margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~24.3% vs. cons 24.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Net New Orders (units)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~7,150 vs. cons 7,383",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Home Sale Gross Margin guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~24.5% vs. cons ~24.7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Closings guidance (28,500-29,000 unit range)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~28,750 vs. cons ~28,800 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Gross Margin guide / back-half recovery confirmation",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~24.6% vs. cons ~24.6% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.8,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Peer DHI's beat-but-guide-cut on 7/21 was punished (~-0.9% idiosyncratic) despite an EPS beat, showing the market is currently fixated on order/volume deceleration and margin-guide direction over headline EPS. PHM's own FY26 GM guide sitting at/near the low end of 24.5%-25.0% and order growth likely decelerating from Q1's +3% (with sector-wide 'light orders' commentary from DHI) gives sell-side cover to trim FY26/FY27 EPS estimates even if Q2 prints roughly in-line. That implicit estimate-cut dynamic (via lower full-year GM/ASP mix and cautious Q3 order commentary) should keep pressure on the stock through the week rather than a snap-back, consistent with a follow-through fade rather than stabilization, though the size is capped by how much bad news (10%+ pre-print pullback, 21% EPS decline already consensus) is already priced in.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}