PHM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PHM Report EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.34 vs. cons $2.36 MEDIUM
PHM Report Net new orders MISS pred ~7,150 homes vs. cons 7,383 homes MEDIUM
PHM Report Home sale gross margin IN-LINE pred ~24.2% vs. cons 24.3% MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY26 closings LOWER guide ~28,250 homes vs. cons 28,750 homes (FY2026) MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY26 average selling price UNCHANGED guide ~$555,000 vs. cons $555,000 (FY2026) MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY26 home sale gross margin UNCHANGED guide ~24.7% vs. cons 24.7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY26 operating cash flow LOWER guide ~$0.9B vs. cons $1.0B (FY2026) LOW
PHM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.5% MEDIUM
PHM Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~500-home FY26 closing-guide cut versus the prior ~28,750-home expectation and softer ~7,150 orders versus 7,383 consensus would outweigh an essentially in-line ~$2.34 EPS result. The reduced delivery base implies lower 2H26 volume and pulls FY27 revenue/EPS math lower despite broadly preserved ~24.7% FY26 gross-margin guidance. MEDIUM