PHM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PHM Report Gross Margin (HB Operating) BEAT pred ~24.3% vs. cons ~23.8% MEDIUM
PHM Report Net New Orders (units) MISS pred ~7,100 vs. cons 7,494 MEDIUM
PHM Report EPS Diluted Operating IN-LINE pred ~$2.35 vs. cons $2.363 MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY 2026 Gross Margin (FY 2026) BETTER guide 24.5-25.0% vs. cons ~24.0% implied MEDIUM
PHM Guide FY 2026 Closings (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide 28,500-29,000 vs. cons 28,737 HIGH
PHM Guide FY 2026 EPS Operating (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$10.00-$10.10 vs. cons $10.034 MEDIUM
PHM Guide Incentive Trajectory (qualitative) BETTER beginning to ease; BTO mix driving load lower LOW
PHM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
PHM Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) FADE — order miss pulls near-term estimates; margin beat does not offset in revision cycle LOW