| PKG |
Report |
EPS ex-items (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.34 |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Report |
Net sales (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.47B vs. cons $2.45B |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Report |
Legacy corrugated shipments/day YoY |
BEAT |
pred ~+4.3% vs. cons ~+3.0% |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Guide |
Q3 2026 EPS guide (the swing factor) |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.95 vs. cons $2.85 (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PKG |
Guide |
Greif accretion (sequential swing) |
BETTER |
guide ~+$0.12 sequential/accretive vs. cons ~+$0.08 (Q2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Guide |
Containerboard $50/ton price realization |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$50/ton net, majority in Q3 vs. cons ~$50/ton (2H 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Guide |
FY26 synergy run-rate |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$30M exit run-rate vs. cons ~$30M (FY2026, $60M target) |
LOW |
| PKG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Unlike the classic implicit-cut setup, PKG's out-period math points UP: the Q2 guide is a pre-flagged trough (heavy outages, cost inflation, price lag), so a beat on top of $2.33 plus a strong sequentially-higher Q3 guide (majority of $50/ton price increase lands in Q3, Greif turns accretive/steps up, outage expense eases to $0.31, synergies build) should pull Q3/2H estimates higher and drive follow-through. Low-beta (~0.79) defensive name and a pullback into the print from the $241 June high limit downside; main fade risk is a 'beat-and-flat/soft-Q3-guide' that undershoots the elevated 2H-ramp expectations. |
LOW |