{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS ex-items (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.34",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.47B vs. cons $2.45B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Legacy corrugated shipments/day YoY",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+4.3% vs. cons ~+3.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 EPS guide (the swing factor)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.95 vs. cons $2.85 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Greif accretion (sequential swing)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+$0.12 sequential/accretive vs. cons ~+$0.08 (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Containerboard $50/ton price realization",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$50/ton net, majority in Q3 vs. cons ~$50/ton (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 synergy run-rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$30M exit run-rate vs. cons ~$30M (FY2026, $60M target)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Unlike the classic implicit-cut setup, PKG's out-period math points UP: the Q2 guide is a pre-flagged trough (heavy outages, cost inflation, price lag), so a beat on top of $2.33 plus a strong sequentially-higher Q3 guide (majority of $50/ton price increase lands in Q3, Greif turns accretive/steps up, outage expense eases to $0.31, synergies build) should pull Q3/2H estimates higher and drive follow-through. Low-beta (~0.79) defensive name and a pullback into the print from the $241 June high limit downside; main fade risk is a 'beat-and-flat/soft-Q3-guide' that undershoots the elevated 2H-ramp expectations.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}