| PKG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (ex-items) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.38 vs. cons $2.34 |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Report |
Total Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.41B vs. cons $2.40B |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Report |
Packaging Segment EBITDA Margin |
MISS |
pred ~21.4% vs. cons 21.9% |
LOW |
| PKG |
Guide |
Q3 2026 EPS Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.65 vs. cons $2.58 (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Guide |
FY2026 Capex Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$855M vs. cons $855M (FY2026, midpoint of prior $840-870M range) |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Guide |
Greif Synergy Run-Rate Target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$30M by year-end vs. prior guide $30M by year-end (FY2026 exit run-rate, on path to $60M target) |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PKG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
An EPS beat paired with a Q3 guide that's better than consensus should trigger positive out-period estimate revisions (Q3/Q4 EPS raises) as sell-side analysts roll forward the price/cost inflection and Greif accretion story already flagged by management, supporting follow-through over the week. However, the packaging margin miss from heavier outage costs and a stock that already ran from $211 to $228 (off $241 highs) caps the magnitude — some of the initial pop could fade if commentary on 'flattish' underlying demand resurfaces, so follow-through is moderate rather than explosive. |
LOW |