{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.08 vs. cons $2.07",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 organic net revenue growth",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+5.5% vs. cons ~+5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "US ZYN shipment volume (cans)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~178M cans vs. cons ~185M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 dollar adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.31\u20138.46 vs. cons ~$8.40 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 organic net revenue growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide +5% to +7% vs. cons ~+6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 currency-neutral adj. EPS growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide +7.5% to +9.5% vs. cons ~+9% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 US ZYN offtake reacceleration commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+20% vs. cons ~+15% (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 is a self-flagged transition quarter (Japan pantry reversal, tough US ZYN comps, FX/RBH $0.33 charge) and the stock ran ~10% into the print (176\u2192193) before fading to 188, so an in-line-to-cons EPS that only beats the FX-cut $1.97\u20132.02 guide triggers a modest sell-the-news day-1 dip led by soft ZYN shipments. But out-period math is supportive rather than punitive: the FY organic algo (+5\u20137% NR, +7\u20139% OI, +7.5\u20139.5% cn-EPS) should be reaffirmed, FX revisions are already known, and H2 carries easier comps plus the ULTRA/MRTP reaccel narrative \u2014 so estimates hold rather than get cut, and the quality-compounder bid stabilizes the stock near the day-1 level rather than following through lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}