{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.09 vs. cons $2.06",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic Net Revenue Growth (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~5.8% vs. cons 5.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "U.S. ZYN Shipment Volume (Q2 2026, cans)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~175M vs. cons ~180M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.50 (midpoint of narrowed/raised $8.42-$8.58) vs. cons $8.40 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Organic Net Revenue Growth Outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~6.0% vs. cons 5.5% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic Operating Income Growth Range",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 7-9% (~8% midpoint) vs. cons ~7.6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.7,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.1,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS/organic-revenue beat plus a small FY EPS guide raise should support an initial positive idiosyncratic pop, but three overhangs likely erode gains into day 5: (1) Japan HTU IMS growth headline deceleration (flagged as mechanical pantry-load reversal) risks an initial negative read that only partially reverses once analysts digest the explanation; (2) U.S. ZYN shipments likely stay below offtake with no concrete ZYN Ultra/FDA approval date, keeping the swing-factor bear case alive and prompting some sell-side trimming of out-quarter ZYN estimates even after a headline beat; (3) the CFO handover from Babeau to Andolina (effective Aug 1) adds a governance/continuity discount that can weigh on flows over the week. Net effect: initial pop fades toward flat as revisions settle on in-line-to-slightly-better full-year math rather than a durable re-rating.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}