PM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PM Report Adjusted diluted EPS (2026Q2) BEAT pred ~$2.10 vs. cons $2.07 MEDIUM
PM Report Organic net revenue growth (2026Q2) BEAT pred ~5.4% vs. cons 5.0% MEDIUM
PM Report Smoke-free organic net revenue growth (2026Q2) IN-LINE pred ~10.2% vs. cons 10.3% LOW
PM Guide Adjusted diluted EPS guidance LOWER guide ~$8.39 vs. cons $8.43 (FY2026) MEDIUM
PM Guide Organic net revenue growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~6.0% vs. cons 6.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PM Guide Organic operating income growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~8.0% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.4% MEDIUM
PM Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) An EPS beat of ~$2.10 vs. $2.07 consensus paired with an unchanged FY2026 midpoint of ~$8.39 vs. $8.43 consensus implies roughly $4.33 of second-half EPS versus approximately $4.40 embedded in consensus. That out-period shortfall should drive modest estimate cuts after the initial report, particularly given PM's premium valuation and continued uncertainty around U.S. ZYN growth and promotional spending. MEDIUM