PM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PM Report Adjusted diluted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.03 vs. cons $2.04 MEDIUM
PM Report U.S. nicotine-pouch shipments MISS pred ~186.0M cans vs. cons 189.4M MEDIUM
PM Report HTU shipments MISS pred ~40.8B vs. cons 41.31B MEDIUM
PM Guide FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS UNCHANGED guide ~$8.31–$8.46 vs. cons $8.38 MEDIUM
PM Guide FY2026 organic growth framework UNKNOWN reiterate current ranges; no reliable directly comparable consensus LOW
PM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% LOW
PM Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — weak volume and unchanged guidance prompt near-term estimate cuts LOW