| RJF |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.99 vs. cons $2.91 |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Report |
Net revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.91B vs. cons ~$3.88B |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Report |
Total client assets under administration (qtr-end June, record) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.95T vs. cons ~$1.90T |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Guide |
FQ4'26 asset-management fee base (PCG fee-based accounts as FQ4 billing base) |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.19T June base vs. cons ~$1.16T (FQ4'26; implies AM fees up ~3-4% seq vs. ~+2%) |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Guide |
NII + third-party RJBDP fees (cash/spread) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~flat-to-+1% seq vs. cons ~+1% (FQ4'26); Fed-cut path is the swing |
LOW |
| RJF |
Guide |
Firmwide comp ratio / PCG margin |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~65-66% comp ratio vs. cons ~65% (FQ4'26) |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Guide |
Buyback pace / capital return |
BETTER |
guide ~$400M/qtr vs. cons ~$300M (FQ4'26; ~$2.1B excess capacity) |
LOW |
| RJF |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.8% |
— |
LOW |
| RJF |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.0% (STABILIZE) |
Clean beat on record AUA + non-repeat of the $58M legal reserve should print well, and the ~$1.16T June fee-based base sets up a stronger FQ4, biasing out-period revisions modestly UP rather than down — supportive of estimates. But RJF rallied ~+12% into the print (from ~$150 late June to ~$168), so much of the good news is priced; NII/rate-cut sensitivity and elevated comp/PCG-margin caps follow-through. Net: positive revisions offset by rich setup → stabilize around a small positive residual. |
LOW |