{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.99 vs. cons $2.91",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.91B vs. cons ~$3.88B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total client assets under administration (qtr-end June, record)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.95T vs. cons ~$1.90T",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FQ4'26 asset-management fee base (PCG fee-based accounts as FQ4 billing base)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.19T June base vs. cons ~$1.16T (FQ4'26; implies AM fees up ~3-4% seq vs. ~+2%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NII + third-party RJBDP fees (cash/spread)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~flat-to-+1% seq vs. cons ~+1% (FQ4'26); Fed-cut path is the swing",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Firmwide comp ratio / PCG margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~65-66% comp ratio vs. cons ~65% (FQ4'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace / capital return",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$400M/qtr vs. cons ~$300M (FQ4'26; ~$2.1B excess capacity)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Clean beat on record AUA + non-repeat of the $58M legal reserve should print well, and the ~$1.16T June fee-based base sets up a stronger FQ4, biasing out-period revisions modestly UP rather than down \u2014 supportive of estimates. But RJF rallied ~+12% into the print (from ~$150 late June to ~$168), so much of the good news is priced; NII/rate-cut sensitivity and elevated comp/PCG-margin caps follow-through. Net: positive revisions offset by rich setup \u2192 stabilize around a small positive residual.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}