Raymond James Financial (RJF) — Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Reports: After the close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · Conference call 5:00 p.m. ET
Fiscal period: Fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026 (RJF's fiscal year ends September 30)
Stock: ~$168 (July 21 close), roughly +3% YTD after a round trip from a February high near $174 to a March low near $140
The one-line setup
RJF heads into this print with the wind at its back on the two things that drive the story — client assets at a fresh record and a benign credit/expense backdrop — but with the usual crosscurrents around cash sweep balances, spread compression from Fed cuts, and the timing of investment banking closings. This quarter also laps an unusually weak year-ago comp (a $58M legal reserve depressed FQ3'25), so year-over-year growth should look outsized.
Consensus and the bar
- Street EPS is around $2.91, up ~33% versus the year-ago $2.18 adjusted ($2.12 GAAP). Revenue consensus is roughly $3.86–3.91B, up ~14% YoY.
- Context on the comp: FQ3'25 net income was hit by a $58M pre-tax legal reserve (bond-underwriting settlement) booked in Capital Markets — worth roughly $0.21/share after tax. Excluding that, the "clean" year-ago base was closer to ~$2.39, so underlying growth implied by consensus is more like low-20s%.
- Recent scorecard: RJF beat in FQ2'26 ($2.83 adj. vs. $2.76), and has generally cleared the bar. The 12-month analyst price-target average sits around ~$180.
Reference points going in:
| Metric |
FQ3'25 (yr ago) |
FQ2'26 (last qtr) |
Street FQ3'26E |
| Net revenue |
$3.40B |
$3.86B (record) |
~$3.86–3.91B |
| Adj. diluted EPS |
$2.18* |
$2.83 |
~$2.91 |
| Pre-tax margin (adj.) |
17.1%* |
19.7% |
— |
| Client AUA |
$1.64T |
$1.76T |
(see May data below) |
| PCG fee-based assets |
$944B |
$1.04T |
— |
| Bank NIM |
2.74% |
2.81% |
— |
*FQ3'25 depressed by the $58M legal reserve.
The biggest tailwind: record client assets
The May 2026 operating data (the last monthly release before this print) is the single most important tell:
- AUA hit a record $1.92T at May 31, up 21% YoY and 3% sequentially, on higher equity markets plus net inflows.
- PCG fee-based accounts reached $1.157T, up 27% YoY — a huge jump from the $1.04T that started the fiscal quarter (April 1).
Why this matters: RJF bills most PCG asset-management fees on beginning-of-quarter balances, so the current quarter's fee revenue keys off the March 31 base (~$1.04T). Management guided FQ3 asset-management fees up ~1% sequentially (mostly one extra billing day). The bigger read-through is the setup for FQ4 — the ~$1.16T May base means the recurring fee engine should step up next quarter regardless of what happens intra-quarter. Watch the June-end fee-based figure they'll report on the call as the FQ4 tailwind indicator.
NII and cash sweep — the swing factor for the multiple
- Management guided the aggregate of NII + third-party RJBDP fees up ~1% sequentially (largely one more interest-earning day), holding rates and balances flat. Bank NIM has been stable at 2.81%.
- Cash sweep + ESP balances were ~$55.8B at May 31 (sweep $42.2B / ESP $13.6B), up 3% YoY and roughly flat month-over-month — management's thesis that sweep balances have stabilized at ~3.7% of PCG assets.
- The debate the market keeps re-pricing: "agentic AI" cash optimization and a lower terminal value on cash-derived profits. CEO Paul Shoukry has pushed back that the shift to higher-yielding alternatives already happened (sweep down 40–50% since rates rose; <$10K average cash per fee-based account) and doesn't require AI. Any incremental commentary here — plus willingness to consider platform/advisory fees — will move sentiment more than the quarter's actual NII.
- Rate risk: further Fed cuts pressure the spread businesses (both bank NIM and third-party sweep yield, which slipped to 2.70%). Watch guidance sensitivity.
Private Client Group — growth strong, margin under scrutiny
- Net new assets: 5.8% annualized in FQ2, ~7% first-half — an industry-leading pace. Recruiting was the second-highest quarterly result ever in FQ2 (trailing-12-month production of recruits ~$141M; ~$21B of prior-firm assets), and management called the pipeline "robust" across all affiliation options, including an uptick in the employee channel.
- Margin watch: PCG pre-tax income has been declining YoY (–3% in FQ2) despite record revenue, squeezed by (1) lower short-term rates compressing the spread on cash, (2) rising recruiting/retention comp (now broken out separately), and (3) mix shift toward independent advisors (higher payout). Expect the comp ratio to stay elevated (~65–66% firmwide) and questions on when operating leverage returns.
Capital Markets — easy comp, pipeline optionality
- This is the segment with the most YoY upside: last year's FQ3 posted a $54M pre-tax loss purely because of the $58M legal reserve — that headwind does not repeat, so a swing to solid profitability should flatter the consolidated YoY.
- Underlying momentum improved in FQ2 (IB revenue $272M, +31% YoY, with a "particularly strong" March). Management describes the IB pipeline as strong but flags that timing of closings remains uncertain — the classic caveat. The GreensLedge acquisition (closed late FQ2) adds capabilities.
- Watch M&A/advisory and debt & equity underwriting; sponsor-driven activity is the key driver.
Bank & credit
- Record loans of $54.8B at March 31, ~$55.3B at May 31, driven by securities-based lending (+31% YoY) and residential mortgages, partly offset by shrinking corporate loans (a deliberate de-risking that also weighs on yield/mix).
- Credit remains clean: NPAs down YoY (0.27% of assets), criticized loans stable, small provisions. Don't expect credit to be the story unless corporate/CRE cracks.
Capital return & M&A
- RJF is returning capital aggressively: $400M buyback in FQ2 at ~$155, ~$1.6B repurchased over the trailing 12 months, ~94% of earnings returned including dividends. Falling share count is a steady EPS tailwind.
- Excess capital is ample: Tier 1 leverage 12.4% vs. a conservative 10% target, ~$2.1B of excess capacity. Watch for commentary on (a) buyback pace, (b) appetite for a larger wealth-management acquisition — management hinted private-equity buyers are struggling to raise capital, which could reduce competition for deals.
- Recent tuck-ins: Clark Capital closed April 30 (adds ~$37B AUM / ~$49B total client assets — already visible in the May AUM jump to $342.7B, +35% YoY); GreensLedge in Capital Markets.
What could move the stock
Bullish: record AUA/fee-based assets flowing into higher recurring revenue; the non-repeat of the legal reserve; strong recruiting/NNA; clean credit; buyback support; any upbeat IB conversion or a bigger M&A signal.
Bearish/risk: renewed cash-sweep attrition or a dovish rate path pressuring NII; PCG margin erosion from comp/mix; IB closings slipping again; a lumpy tax rate (FQ2 was 26% on non-deductible COLI losses vs. 24–25% FY guide); and the market's structural worry about the value of cash-based earnings.
Bottom line
Consensus of ~$2.91 embeds strong YoY growth that is partly flattered by an easy comp. The quarter itself should be solid — recurring fees are supported, credit is benign, and buybacks help EPS — but the forward setup matters more than the headline: the ~$1.16T fee-based base sets up a stronger FQ4, while the real swing factors for the stock are cash-sweep commentary, the rate outlook's effect on NII, PCG margin trajectory, and any escalation in capital deployment (buybacks or a needle-moving acquisition).
Preview based on RJF's FQ2'26 and FQ3'25 earnings releases and transcripts, its May 2026 monthly operating data, and public consensus estimates (~$2.91 EPS / ~$3.86–3.91B revenue). Fiscal Q3 = quarter ended June 30, 2026.