| RJF |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.98 vs. cons $2.91 |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Report |
Net revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.00B vs. cons $3.95B |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Report |
Capital Markets/Investment Banking revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$205M vs. cons $215M |
LOW |
| RJF |
Guide |
NII + third-party sweep fee growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~+2% q/q vs. cons ~+1% q/q (Q4 FY26) |
LOW |
| RJF |
Guide |
Asset management/administrative fee growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+1% q/q vs. cons ~+1% q/q (Q4 FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Guide |
FY2026 non-comp expense guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.3B vs. cons ~$2.3B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Guide |
Adjusted pretax margin target (long-term ~20%) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~20% vs. cons ~19.8% exit rate (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| RJF |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.3% (FADE) |
Stock has already rallied hard into the print (from ~$138 low to ~$168-170) with sell-side targets only modestly above spot, so a 'good but not great' beat with reaffirmed (not raised) ~20% margin/$20B 2030 targets and lingering IB timing uncertainty leaves little room for upward estimate revisions; implicit conservatism in FY27 framing and elevated recruiting/tech costs pressuring near-term margin should cap follow-through and pull the initial pop back over the week as analysts trim rather than raise out-period numbers. |
LOW |