I now have enough to write a thorough preview. Let me pull the total revenue figure from the financial supplement for context (Q2 FY26 total net revenue) to make sure numbers are precise, and quickly confirm May op data commentary about IB trends (already have it). I think I have sufficient information.I have enough information now. Let me write the earnings preview.# Raymond James Financial (RJF) — FY2026 Q3 Earnings Preview Report date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (after market close), followed by conference call Fiscal quarter covered: Three months ended June 30, 2026
RJF heads into this print on a strong run — shares have rallied from a 52-week low near $138.82 in the spring back to roughly $168-170, though still shy of the 52-week high of $177.66. The stock's round-trip reflects a spring correction (rate-cut uncertainty, market volatility) followed by a sharp July rally into the print.
Wall Street is looking for a solid beat-and-raise setup: Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Raymond James Financial reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. Specifically, the company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.91 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +33.5%. That growth rate is easy given the comp — last year's fiscal Q3 (June 2025) adjusted EPS was roughly $2.18-2.19 (GAAP EPS $2.12) on net revenues of $3.40 billion, which grew only 5% year-over-year at the time. So the bar is low relative to the momentum RJF has shown since.
Analyst sentiment has been mixed but skewing more constructive into the print: TD Cowen cut its price target to $155 (Hold) in late May citing a reduced FY26-27 EPS outlook, but that was before the June/July rally and margin reassurance from the Investor Day. Since then, sell-side price targets have moved up — Morgan Stanley to $174 (Equal Weight, 7/10) and UBS to $175 (Neutral, 7/8) — with a broader analyst mean target in the $173-178 range, only modestly above the current share price.
RJF's most recent quarter (calendar Q1 2026 / fiscal Q2) set the stage: - Record net revenues of $3.86 billion, up 13% year-over-year and 3% sequentially, with adjusted EPS of $2.83 (adjusted net income $564 million) and adjusted pretax margin of 19.7%. - Private Client Group: record AUA context, $1.7 trillion in client assets, 15% YoY growth, $23 billion of quarterly domestic net new assets (5.8% annualized), and the second-highest quarterly adviser recruiting result in company history ($141 million trailing-12-month production, ~$21 billion of client assets recruited). - Capital Markets: improving investment banking revenue, "particularly strong" March, and a "robust pipeline" entering Q3, aided by the GreensLedge acquisition (securitization advisory) that closed late in the quarter. - Bank segment: record loans of $54.8 billion (+14% YoY), driven by 31% YoY growth in securities-based lending; net interest margin stable at 2.81%. - Capital return: $400 million of buybacks at an average $155/share, Tier 1 leverage ratio of 12.4% (vs. a 10% long-term target), and $2.1 billion of "excess" capital capacity.
Management's own guidance for Q3 called for asset management/administrative fees up ~1% sequentially (extra billing day, higher fee-based assets) and combined NII + third-party sweep fees up ~1% sequentially, with the usual caveats around Fed policy and balance-sheet mix.
The May 2026 monthly operating data (released June 24) is the most recent official read and should be a key baseline for Q3 results: - Client assets under administration hit a record $1.92 trillion, up 21% YoY and 3% sequentially — helped by market appreciation and the Clark Capital acquisition (closed April 30, adding ~$37 billion of AUM, ~$49B total client assets including non-discretionary). - PCG fee-based assets of $1.157 trillion, up 27% YoY. - Bank loans of $55.3 billion, "nearly flat" month-over-month as strong securities-based lending and residential mortgage growth offset softer corporate loans. - Cash sweep + Enhanced Savings Program balances of $55.8 billion combined, roughly flat month-over-month, up modestly year-over-year — a sign the multi-year "cash sorting" headwind has largely stabilized. - CEO Paul Shoukry reiterated that "investment banking pipelines and client activity levels remain strong, but the timing of closings continues to be uncertain" — a recurring caveat that tempers how much credit the market should give to pipeline commentary versus realized revenue.
At its Analyst & Investor Day (May 27), management reaffirmed rather than raised most long-term targets, which is worth remembering heading into Q3 commentary: - Adjusted pretax margin target of ~20%, adjusted compensation ratio ~65%, adjusted ROE ≥17%, adjusted ROTCE ≥20%. - Long-term goal of $20 billion in firm-wide revenue by 2030 (management said the firm is "tracking on course" to that goal). - Capital Markets ambition to grow revenue from ~$1.8 billion toward a $3 billion mid-term target and a "big hairy audacious goal" of $5 billion longer term. - Continued heavy ($1.1 billion+ annually) technology/AI investment, with management candid that AI's margin benefit is still too early to quantify and that recruiting-driven growth costs (record adviser recruiting, now ~$400M+/year in trailing production) are pressuring near-term margins even as they're economically accretive over time. - Capital deployment priorities unchanged: organic growth first (recruiting, lending, tech), then disciplined M&A (must be cultural fit, strategic fit, then financially attractive — Clark Capital and GreensLedge cited as fiscal 2026 examples), then dividends (raised 8% to $0.54/quarter) and buybacks (targeting $400-500 million/quarter, lowest priority).
Consensus is set for a straightforward "growth quarter" (adjusted EPS ~$2.91, +33.5% YoY) against an easy prior-year comp, and RJF's own monthly operating data (record $1.92 trillion in AUA, stabilizing cash balances, still-strong recruiting) supports that setup. The more important signals for the stock will likely come from qualitative commentary: whether Capital Markets/investment banking finally converts its long-touted pipeline into revenue, whether PCG margins stabilize as recruiting-driven costs normalize, and whether management's reaffirmed (but not raised) ~20% margin and $20 billion 2030 revenue targets still look conservative or increasingly challenged by rate and mix headwinds. With sell-side price targets clustered just modestly above the current quote, this looks more like a "show me" print than one priced for a dramatic re-rating in either direction.