RJF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RJF Report Investment Banking Revenue BEAT pred ~$270M vs. cons $234M MEDIUM
RJF Report Net Interest Income IN-LINE pred ~$572M vs. cons $569M HIGH
RJF Report Net Revenues BEAT pred ~$3.92B vs. cons $3.875B MEDIUM
RJF Guide Non-Comp Expenses (FY2026) BETTER guide ~$2.3B vs. cons $2.388B HIGH
RJF Guide IB Pipeline / Capital Markets Tone (Q4 FY2026) BETTER upgraded tone; strong Q4 visibility vs. cautious consensus expectation MEDIUM
RJF Guide NII + RJBDP Fees (Q4 FY2026) BETTER guide flat to +1% QoQ (~$657-664M combined) vs. cautious consensus MEDIUM
RJF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.5% MEDIUM
RJF Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — IB beat supported by strongest peer read-through in 8 quarters (GS/MS record prints); partial discount for IB timing caveat MEDIUM