Raymond James Financial (RJF) — Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into RJF's Q3 FY2026 print is constructive — consensus is a manageable bar, the firm entered the quarter with record fee-based assets and a robust investment banking pipeline, but the single biggest swing factor is whether Capital Markets revenues can sustain Q2's momentum given macro and geopolitical timing uncertainty.

Heading into the July 22 print, the bar looks achievable: consensus expects net revenues of ~$3.87B and adjusted EPS of ~$2.89, both modest step-ups from Q2's record $3.86B and $2.83, respectively. Management's tone at the May 27 Investor Day was notably constructive — the firm reaffirmed its $20B revenue-by-2030 target, guided to a ~20% adjusted pretax margin, and expressed confidence in sustaining 7%+ annualized net new asset growth, all while flagging only modest macro uncertainty. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable-to-slightly-higher since the April 22 earnings call, with fee-based asset management fees guided up ~1% sequentially (driven by one additional billing day and record quarter-end PCG fee-based AUA of $1.04T) and NII+RJBDP fees guided up ~1% — both providing a visible floor. The stock has rallied ~9% since last earnings (vs. ~5% for KIE and ~5% for SPY), suggesting the market has partially priced in continued execution, though the valuation at a mid-teens forward P/E remains below large-cap peers and leaves room for upside. The key wildcard is Capital Markets revenue: management cited a "robust pipeline" and strong engagement letter activity entering Q3, but the May operating data 8-K noted that "the timing of closings continues to be uncertain" — a meaningful caveat given that IB revenues were $272M in Q2 and consensus sits at ~$234M for Q3, implying a sequential step-down that could prove conservative if sponsor activity accelerates.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar — guided fee-based asset management fees and NII+RJBDP fees both point ~1% higher sequentially, providing a visible floor. The bigger swing factor is Capital Markets: consensus at ~$234M implies a sequential step-down from Q2's $272M, which could prove conservative if the robust pipeline converts.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Fiscal Q3 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 21, 2026. Q2 FY2026 actuals from April 22, 2026 earnings release. Q3 FY2025 actuals from prior year period.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Net Revenues & Adjusted Diluted EPS (Operating)

Pattern: RJF has beaten on Adj. EPS in 6 of the last 8 quarters and on Net Revenues in 5 of 8, with the largest beats concentrated in quarters with strong Capital Markets activity (Q4 FY2024, Q4 FY2025); the two EPS misses (Q3 FY2025, Q2 FY2025) coincided with NII headwinds and weak IB revenues, suggesting the bar is most vulnerable when both drivers disappoint simultaneously.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management's tone has become more confident since the April 22 earnings call — the May 27 Investor Day reinforced long-term targets and introduced specific financial return goals, while the June 24 operating data 8-K confirmed record client assets and a still-robust recruiting pipeline. No formal guidance revisions have been issued, but the qualitative tone has shifted incrementally positive.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q3 FY2026 have been broadly stable since the April 22 earnings call, with net revenues and EPS tracking within ~1% of the post-print baseline — suggesting the market has largely accepted management's constructive guidance. The more notable revision is in PCG fee-based AUA, where the May operating data (record $1,157.3B) has pushed consensus well above the initial post-earnings baseline, providing a visible tailwind to asset management fees.

The most notable divergence is in Investment Banking, where estimates have been revised down ~12% from the post-earnings baseline despite management's constructive pipeline commentary — this gap represents the key upside/downside swing for the quarter. PCG fee-based AUA revisions are the most visible positive, with May operating data already confirming $1,157.3B, well above the initial post-earnings consensus baseline.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. As-of date for baseline: April 29, 2026 (5 trading days post last earnings).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: RJF has outperformed both the insurance/financial ETF (KIE) and the S&P 500 since the April 22 earnings print, gaining ~9% vs. ~10% for KIE and ~5% for SPY — performance has been driven by a combination of multiple re-rating (Investor Day targets) and improving earnings revisions, with the May 27 Investor Day serving as the most material positive catalyst.

RJF vs. KIE (Insurance ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 22, 2026 (Last Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

• RJF gained approximately +8.7% from the April 22 earnings date through July 21, 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 (+5.2%) but roughly in-line with KIE (+9.9%), which benefited from the broader financial sector rally.
• The May 27 Investor Day was the most significant positive catalyst, with management introducing explicit financial return targets (20% adj. pretax margin, ≥17% adj. ROE, ≥20% adj. ROTCE) and reaffirming the $20B revenue-by-2030 goal, which drove a re-rating of the stock.
• The June 24 operating data 8-K (May 2026 data) confirmed record client AUA of $1.92T (+21% YoY, +3% seq.) and PCG fee-based assets of $1,157.3B, providing a visible floor for Q3 asset management fees.
• The stock pulled back modestly in mid-July, likely reflecting broader market volatility and some profit-taking ahead of the print, but remains well above pre-earnings levels.

6. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through for Q3 FY2026

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from April–July 2026 is broadly positive for RJF's Q3 print — large-cap peers (GS, MS) reported record IB revenues and near-record backlogs for the April–June quarter, SCHW confirmed record NNA and rising NII, and LPLA signaled a return to mid-to-high single-digit organic growth. The primary read-through risk is that sponsor-driven M&A (RJF's IB sweet spot) remains slower than corporate M&A, and timing uncertainty on deal closings persists.

Note: All commentary below is sourced from peer transcripts and filings dated after April 22, 2026 (RJF's last earnings date) and pertains to conditions in the April–June 2026 quarter (RJF's Q3 FY2026 reporting period). HLI's Q4 FY2026 earnings (May 6, 2026) covers their fiscal year ending March 2026 and provides forward commentary on the current environment.

6.1 Capital Markets & Investment Banking Environment

Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 14, 2026) & Bernstein Conference (May 28, 2026)

• GS reported record Q2 2026 revenues of $20.3B and EPS of $20.98, with Advisory revenues of $1.4B (+17% YoY), Equity Underwriting of $985M (+130% YoY), and a record $1.0B in Debt Underwriting (+75% YoY). Large-cap corporate M&A volumes were up 90% in H1 2026.
• Read-through for RJF: The broad-based IB recovery is a strong positive signal for RJF's Capital Markets segment. GS's investment banking backlog increased to its "highest level in five years" — if this pipeline converts in Q3, RJF's IB revenues could surprise to the upside vs. the $234M consensus estimate.
• GS noted that private equity M&A is down 4% YoY while corporate M&A is up 62% — a nuanced read-through for RJF, whose IB pipeline is "mostly driven by financial sponsors on both the buy and sell sides." Sponsor activity remains the key swing factor.
• GS described the operating environment as one of "very strong nominal growth" with the AI investment cycle "expanding capital needs beyond core technology," creating a "ripple effect across industries" — a constructive macro backdrop for RJF's wealth management and IB businesses.

Morgan Stanley (MS) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 15, 2026) & U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026)

• MS delivered record top-line and bottom-line results in Q2 2026, with revenues exceeding $21B and EPS of $3.46. IB revenues were $2.4B, up 58% YoY, driven by a robust IPO market and strong M&A activity. The equities franchise delivered a record $6.3B in revenue.
• Read-through for RJF: MS described it as "a pretty good time to be in the capital markets business" with the securities business "really humming right now." This broad-based strength is a positive read-through for RJF's Capital Markets segment, particularly IB and fixed income.
• MS's Wealth Management generated a record $8.9B in Q2 revenue on $8T in client assets, with record NNA of $148B and strong fee-based flows of $39B. NII outperformed on higher-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth, with deposits growing to $436B.
• Read-through for RJF: MS's wealth management strength — particularly the NNA record and NII outperformance on sweep balances — is a direct positive read-through for RJF's PCG segment. If sweep balances are stabilizing or growing at MS, the same dynamic likely benefits RJF's RJBDP fees.
• MS noted that the "dormant sponsor community" is becoming active, holding "$1.3 trillion of dry powder" — a potential catalyst for RJF's sponsor-driven IB pipeline in H2 FY2026.

Evercore (EVR) — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026)

• EVR described being at "close to record levels in terms of backlog" with "very high activity" and a "replenishment rate" that is "very healthy." The firm characterized the environment as "better than expected."
• Read-through for RJF: EVR's near-record backlog and strong replenishment rate is a direct positive read-through for RJF's Capital Markets IB pipeline. EVR noted "a lot of momentum in large deals" with "optimism that deals can get done" — consistent with RJF management's own constructive commentary.
• EVR flagged that sponsor activity is "slower than we would have expected" as sponsors pause to assess AI's impact on portfolio valuations. This is a nuanced negative read-through for RJF, given its sponsor-heavy IB pipeline, and may explain why consensus IB estimates have been revised down ~12% from the post-earnings baseline.
• EVR noted the IPO market is "strengthening" and "broadening out" beyond the largest deals, with "positivity in the second-level IPOs" — a constructive signal for RJF's equity underwriting capabilities.

Houlihan Lokey (HLI) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (May 6, 2026)

• HLI reported record FY2026 revenues of $2.6B (+10% YoY) and adj. EPS of $7.56 (+20% YoY), with both Corporate Finance and FVA at record revenues. The firm described its business as being "in the best shape in its history" with a "record level of backlog and pipeline."
• Read-through for RJF: HLI's record backlog and pipeline entering the April–June quarter is a strong positive read-through for RJF's middle-market IB business. HLI's commentary that M&A is "firing on all cylinders across industry, across geography with the one exception of technology" is broadly constructive.
• HLI noted that sponsor activity had been "picking up quite a bit" before recent geopolitical uncertainty, and that "go to market" activity (when deals actually kick off) had been "the most active we have seen in years" even in recent weeks. This suggests sponsor deal flow is recovering, which is a positive for RJF's pipeline.
• HLI flagged that M&A deal timelines have extended due to geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, which "may moderate growth a bit in Q1 FY2027" (their fiscal Q1, which overlaps with RJF's Q3 FY2026). This timing risk is consistent with RJF's own May 8-K caveat on closing uncertainty.

6.2 Wealth Management & Net New Assets

Charles Schwab (SCHW) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026) & Institutional Investor Day (May 14, 2026)

• SCHW delivered "record results and growth on all fronts" in Q2 2026, gathering $120B in core NNA (+50% YoY) following a record $158B in Q1. The firm is confident in its 5% organic growth rate for 2026. Asset management and administration fees grew 16% YoY to $1.8B.
• Read-through for RJF: SCHW's record NNA and strong fee-based asset growth is a direct positive read-through for RJF's PCG segment. The industry-wide "bull market for advice" and clients consolidating relationships (61% of affluent clients aged 25–44 prefer to consolidate) benefits RJF's adviser-centric model.
• SCHW's NII increased 19% YoY in Q2, driven by client lending and demand for long-short strategies. Transactional sweep cash increased by $24.2B in Q2. The firm expects full-year 2026 NIM to expand to 3.00%–3.10%.
• Read-through for RJF: SCHW's NII outperformance on higher sweep balances is a positive read-through for RJF's RJBDP fees and NII. SCHW noted "no rate cuts are priced into the market today" — a static rate environment is consistent with RJF's Q3 NII guidance assumption and removes a key downside risk.
• SCHW saw an "all-time high of new advisers joining our platform last year" with nearly 70% of advisers preferring the independent model — a structural tailwind for RJF's adviser recruiting momentum.

LPL Financial (LPLA) — William Blair Growth Stock Conference (June 3, 2026)

• LPLA expects to return to its historical "mid- to high single-digit organic growth range" in H2 2026, supported by strong adviser retention and same-store sales growth. The firm noted a "strong movement to independents in the marketplace" as advisers move out of captive channels.
• Read-through for RJF: LPLA's return to mid-to-high single-digit organic growth is a positive industry read-through for RJF's NNA trajectory. The structural shift toward independence benefits RJF's recruiting pipeline, particularly as LPLA noted its recruiting team is now refocusing on external markets after the Commonwealth acquisition.
• LPLA is evaluating a transition from a cash yield model to a "more fee-like structure" and noted that advisers have been "cash sorting over the last couple of years." This is a nuanced read-through for RJF's RJBDP fee structure and management's commentary that sweep balances have stabilized.

6.3 Peer Read-Through Summary

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since last earnings is the May 27 Investor Day, where management introduced explicit financial return targets and reaffirmed the $20B revenue-by-2030 goal — a significant positive catalyst for the stock. The June 24 operating data 8-K confirmed record client assets and a still-robust recruiting pipeline, providing a visible floor for Q3 asset management fees.

• May 27, 2026 — 2026 Analyst & Investor Day: RJF hosted its annual Investor Day, introducing explicit financial targets for the first time: ~20% adjusted pretax margin, ≥17% adjusted ROE, ≥20% adjusted ROTCE, and a 10% Tier 1 leverage ratio target. Management reaffirmed the $20B revenue-by-2030 goal and confirmed it is "tracking on course." Capital Markets segment set a goal to grow from $1.8B to $3B (and ultimately $5B) in revenues. Recruiting on track to exceed FY2025 record of $407M in trailing-12 production. Implication: The explicit return targets and long-term revenue goals provided a significant re-rating catalyst for the stock and increased investor confidence in the earnings power trajectory.
• June 24, 2026 — May 2026 Operating Data (8-K): Client AUA reached a record $1.92T (+21% YoY, +3% seq.), PCG fee-based assets hit $1,157.3B (+27% YoY, +3% seq.), and bank loans were $55.3B (+13% YoY). CEO Paul Shoukry noted the adviser recruiting pipeline "continues to be robust" but flagged that "investment banking pipelines and client activity levels remain strong, but the timing of closings continues to be uncertain." Implication: The record fee-based AUA provides a visible floor for Q3 asset management fees (guided up ~1% seq.); the IB timing caveat is the key risk to watch.
• April 30, 2026 — Clark Capital Management Group Acquisition Closed: RJF completed the acquisition of Clark Capital Management Group, a Philadelphia-based asset manager with ~$49B in total client assets ($37B AUM + ~$12B non-discretionary). Clark Capital will operate as an independent boutique within Raymond James Investment Management. Implication: The acquisition adds ~$37B to financial AUM (reflected in the May 8-K's 35% YoY AUM increase to $342.7B) and is expected to be modestly accretive to asset management revenues in Q3 FY2026.
• Early March 2026 (completed before Q2 earnings) — GreensLedge Holdings Acquisition Closed: RJF completed the acquisition of GreensLedge Holdings, a boutique investment bank specializing in structured credit and securitization (CLOs, CDOs, ABS). Implication: Enhances Capital Markets capabilities in fixed income and structured products; incremental revenue contribution expected in Q3 FY2026.
• May 27, 2026 — Practice Capital Solutions Program Update: At Investor Day, management disclosed that the Practice Capital Solutions program (launched in FY2025) has already committed $50M in capital in its first year and is expected to "exponentially grow" in coming years. The program supports adviser retention and growth. Implication: A differentiated retention tool that strengthens RJF's competitive moat vs. PE-backed roll-ups; supports the recruiting and retention narrative.
• May 27, 2026 — AI Strategy Update (Investor Day): Management disclosed that the Rai AI operations agent has been rolled out to a few hundred advisers and home office service groups with "strong initial feedback." Annual technology spend exceeds $1.1B (14% CAGR over 5 years), with $82M on cybersecurity alone. Management explicitly pushed back on agentic AI cash optimization as an incremental threat to sweep balances. Implication: AI is a medium-term efficiency driver but management is appropriately cautious on near-term margin impact; the technology moat is a competitive differentiator vs. smaller peers.
• February 23, 2026 — Quarterly Dividend Declared: RJF declared a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share (8% increase for FY2026), aligning with the low end of the 20%–30% target payout ratio. Implication: Signals management confidence in earnings trajectory; consistent with capital return framework.
• July 16, 2026 — Analyst Upgrade (Seeking Alpha): A Seeking Alpha analyst upgraded RJF to Bullish after the Investor Day and earnings preview, citing the stock as potentially "32% cheap on strong Q1 growth" (per a July 11 Yahoo Finance article). Implication: Positive sentiment shift heading into the print; the mid-teens forward P/E vs. large-cap peers in the low-to-mid twenties suggests valuation upside if execution continues.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider transactions (Form 4 codes P/S) were identified for RJF in the period from April 22, 2026 through July 21, 2026. The absence of insider selling ahead of the print is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying means insiders are not providing a strong directional signal either way.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Query covered open-market buys (code P) and sells (code S) for RJF from April 22, 2026 through July 21, 2026. No transactions were returned. This may reflect routine 10b5-1 plan activity or a quiet period ahead of earnings, but no discretionary open-market transactions were identified.

Disclosures & Sources

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and historical actuals (Net Revenues, Adj. EPS Operating, Net Interest Income, PCG Fee-Based AUA, Net New Assets, Investment Banking, Securities-Based Loans, Net Interest Margin, Non-Comp Expenses, Financial Advisors).
• RJF Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 22, 2026) — Guidance, management commentary, and forward-looking statements.
• RJF 2026 Analyst & Investor Day Transcript (May 27, 2026) — Long-term financial targets, segment goals, and strategic commentary.
• RJF May 2026 Operating Data (8-K, June 24, 2026) — Monthly client assets, fee-based AUA, bank loans, and cash sweep balances.
• Peer Transcripts — GS Q2 2026 Earnings (July 14, 2026); GS Bernstein Conference (May 28, 2026); MS Q2 2026 Earnings (July 15, 2026); MS U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026); SCHW Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026); SCHW Institutional Investor Day (May 14, 2026); LPLA William Blair Conference (June 3, 2026); EVR Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9, 2026); HLI Q4 FY2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026).
• Stock Price Data — Yahoo Finance. RJF, KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF). Indexed to 100 at April 22, 2026.
• SEC Form 4 Filings Database — Insider transaction data for RJF, April 22 – July 21, 2026.
• This document is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All consensus estimates are as of July 21, 2026 and are subject to change.