Raymond James Financial (RJF) — Fiscal 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Earnings Date: July 22, 2026 | Prepared: July 21, 2026 | Reporting Period: Fiscal 3Q 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into 3Q 2026 is modestly constructive — consensus appears to be a manageable bar, with the biggest swing factor being whether Capital Markets can sustain its 2Q rebound, and whether NII/RJBDP fees hold up against rate and balance-sheet headwinds.

Heading into fiscal 3Q 2026, the bar for Raymond James looks achievable but not easy. Consensus adjusted EPS of ~$2.89 implies modest sequential growth from 2Q's $2.83 print, supported by management's own guidance for asset management fees to rise ~1% and NII + RJBDP fees to also be up ~1% sequentially — both driven by one additional billing/interest-earning day in the quarter. The Capital Markets wildcard is the key swing factor: management entered 3Q with a "robust pipeline" and strong engagement letter activity, and peer prints from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies all confirm a record-level investment banking environment in April–June, which is a meaningful positive read-through. On the wealth management side, May operating data showed client assets under administration at a record $1.92 trillion (+21% YoY, +3% sequentially), and the Clark Capital acquisition (closed April 30) adds ~$37B in AUM to the asset management segment. The stock has rallied ~8.7% since the 2Q print, outperforming XLF (+7.5%) and the S&P 500 (+5.2%), suggesting some beat is already priced in. The primary wildcard is NII sensitivity to rate cuts and deposit dynamics: management flagged that sweep balances declined in April due to seasonal tax outflows and fee billing collection, and any further Fed rate action or cash sorting could pressure the NII line more than the static-rate guidance implies.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar on revenues and EPS, with Capital Markets the biggest upside lever given peer read-throughs pointing to a record IB environment in the quarter. NII + RJBDP fees are the key downside risk if rate or balance-sheet assumptions prove too optimistic.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Fiscal 3Q 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 21, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Pattern: RJF has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the one notable miss (3Q FY2025) driven by a weak Capital Markets quarter. Revenue beats have been more mixed, with 5 beats and 3 in-line/misses. The consistent EPS beat pattern reflects management's conservative guidance posture and strong operating leverage when Capital Markets cooperates.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management's tone since the April 22 earnings call has remained constructive. No formal guidance revisions have been issued, but the May 27 Analyst & Investor Day reinforced confidence in Capital Markets momentum, record recruiting, and the Clark Capital integration. The primary headwind — NII sensitivity to rate cuts — remains unchanged.

Sources: RJF 2Q FY2026 Earnings Call transcript (April 22, 2026); RJF 2026 Analyst & Investor Day transcript (May 27, 2026); RJF May 2026 Operating Data 8-K (June 24, 2026).

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates for 3Q FY2026 have drifted modestly lower since the 2Q print — adjusted EPS consensus is down ~1% from the post-print baseline — likely reflecting macro uncertainty and conservative modeling of Capital Markets. Full-year FY2026 estimates are also slightly lower. The gap between consensus and management's constructive tone on Capital Markets represents the key potential upside.

The most notable divergence is in Investment Banking (Capital Markets): consensus has drifted ~12% below the post-print baseline, while management's tone at the May 27 Investor Day was decidedly more constructive. Given peer prints from Goldman Sachs (IB revenues +58% YoY), Morgan Stanley (IB revenues +58% YoY), and Jefferies (record IB revenues), the consensus IB estimate for RJF appears conservative and represents the clearest potential upside to the quarter.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; RJF 2Q FY2026 Earnings Call (April 22, 2026); RJF 2026 Analyst & Investor Day (May 27, 2026).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: RJF has outperformed both the financial sector (XLF) and the S&P 500 since the 2Q print, with the rally driven primarily by multiple re-rating rather than estimate revisions (which have been flat to slightly down). The stock's +8.7% gain vs. XLF's +7.5% and SPY's +5.2% suggests the market is pricing in continued execution, but leaves less room for disappointment.

RJF vs. XLF vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since 2Q FY2026 Earnings (April 22, 2026). Base = 100. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance since 2Q FY2026 earnings (April 22, 2026 through July 21, 2026):

• RJF: +8.7% ($154.52 → $167.93)
• XLF (Financial Select Sector ETF): +7.5% ($52.21 → $56.11)
• S&P 500 (SPY): +5.2% ($711.21 → $748.28)

Key events during the period:

• April 30: Clark Capital acquisition closed, adding ~$37B AUM
• May 27: Analyst & Investor Day — management reinforced $20B revenue target by 2030, record recruiting trajectory, and Capital Markets pipeline confidence; stock sold off ~8% in the days following (May 27–28), likely on profit-taking and macro concerns
• June 24: May 2026 operating data released — record client AUA of $1.92T; stock recovered through July
• July 14–15: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported record IB quarters, providing positive read-through for RJF Capital Markets; stock rallied to ~$170

Performance decomposition: Over the 3-month window, RJF's NTM P/E expanded from ~11.9x to ~12.2x, suggesting the rally has been driven by a combination of modest multiple expansion and earnings estimate stability. The 6-month picture shows P/E compression (-11.7%), consistent with the stock's underperformance over that window (-2.2%), as NII headwinds weighed on the earnings outlook earlier in the year.

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data; Visible Alpha (NTM multiples).

6. Peer Commentary & Read-Throughs (May 21 – July 21, 2026)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the current reporting quarter (April–June 2026) is overwhelmingly positive for RJF's Capital Markets segment, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies all reporting record or near-record investment banking revenues. Wealth management trends at Morgan Stanley and Schwab also point to a favorable asset-gathering environment. The primary limitation is business-mix: RJF is a middle-market-focused firm, and the large-cap/institutional drivers at bulge-bracket peers may not translate 1:1.

Note: Only commentary from peers reporting on or discussing activity in the April–June 2026 quarter (RJF's fiscal 3Q 2026) is included below. Prior-quarter earnings calls discussing prior-quarter results are excluded.

Goldman Sachs (GS) — 2Q 2026 Earnings (July 14, 2026)

Investment Banking / M&A / Deal Activity (Strong positive read-through):

• GS reported record revenues of $20.3B for 2Q 2026, with large-cap corporate M&A volumes up 90% through the first half of 2026. Advisory revenues rose 17% YoY to $1.4B on higher completed volumes. Equity underwriting revenues were $985M (+130% YoY) and debt underwriting was a record $1.0B (+75% YoY).
• GS's investment banking backlog increased to its highest level in five years and second-highest on record, underpinned by a record advisory backlog.
• Management noted: "We remain optimistic on the investment banking outlook as strategic dialogue remains robust while sponsor volumes are still subdued versus historical averages. This represents a meaningful source of potential upside as activity picks up."
• Read-through to RJF: The broad-based surge in M&A advisory and underwriting activity confirms a highly favorable deal-making environment during April–June 2026. RJF's middle-market Capital Markets segment should benefit from increased deal flow, particularly in M&A advisory and equity underwriting. The still-subdued sponsor volumes represent additional future upside.
• Limitation: GS operates a global bulge-bracket franchise with $1T+ in announced M&A volumes. RJF's middle-market focus means growth rates and deal sizes will differ materially. The 90% M&A volume growth at GS is not directly translatable to RJF's IB revenue trajectory.

Wealth Management / Asset Gathering (Positive read-through):

• GS Asset & Wealth Management revenues rose 20% YoY to $4.6B. Wealth management client assets reached a record ~$2T. The firm delivered its 34th consecutive quarter of long-term net inflows, including $19B in wealth management.
• Read-through to RJF: Consistent long-term net inflows and record client assets at GS confirm a favorable environment for asset gathering. RJF's PCG segment, which started 3Q with record fee-based AUA, should benefit from similar tailwinds.
• Limitation: GS's wealth management is heavily focused on ultra-high-net-worth and institutional clients, with significant alternatives and private credit exposure. RJF's client base is broader and more retail-oriented.

Source: Goldman Sachs 2Q 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 14, 2026).

Morgan Stanley (MS) — 2Q 2026 Earnings (July 15, 2026)

Investment Banking / M&A / Deal Activity (Strong positive read-through):

• MS Institutional Securities delivered record revenues of $11B. Investment banking revenues were $2.4B (+58% YoY), with advisory revenues of $798M on higher completed activity across industrials, technology, and healthcare. Equity underwriting was strong at $851M, supported by a "robust IPO market." Fixed income underwriting was a record $188M.
• Management stated: "The investment banking outlook is constructive and pipelines are healthy." CEO noted M&A volumes are still at "multi-year lows" against current market cap, representing significant pent-up demand.
• Read-through to RJF: The robust IPO market and strong advisory activity across multiple sectors are positive indicators for RJF's Capital Markets segment. The "constructive" outlook and healthy pipelines align with RJF management's own commentary at the May 27 Investor Day.
• Limitation: MS's 58% IB revenue growth is partly driven by very large, specific transactions (e.g., SpaceX IPO) and global institutional mandates. RJF's middle-market focus means its growth rate will likely be lower in absolute terms.

Wealth Management / NII / Cash Sorting (Positive read-through):

• MS Wealth Management reported record revenues of $8.9B and record net new assets of $148B. Total client assets reached $8T. NII increased to $2.3B sequentially, outperforming on "higher than expected sweep balances and strong loan growth." Loan balances grew $9B in the quarter. Management guided for a "modest sequential increase in NII" in 3Q.
• Read-through to RJF: Higher-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth at MS are a positive signal for RJF's NII and securities-based lending trajectory. RJF's SBL book has been growing at ~31% YoY, and the favorable lending environment at MS suggests continued demand.
• Limitation: MS's record NNA of $148B was driven by stock plan IPO flows ("just over half" from workplace channel), which is a unique driver not applicable to RJF. RJF's NNA growth is driven by adviser recruiting and organic client flows.

Source: Morgan Stanley 2Q 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 15, 2026).

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) — 2Q 2026 Earnings (June 24, 2026; quarter ended May 31, 2026)

Investment Banking / M&A / Deal Activity (Strong positive read-through):

• JEF reported quarterly record combined investment banking advisory and underwriting net revenues. IB net revenues were $1.21B (+57% YoY). Advisory revenues were a record $674M (+47% YoY), driven by market share gains and increased deal volumes. Equity underwriting was $531M (+62% YoY). Fixed income underwriting was solid but declined YoY on lower ABS origination.
• Read-through to RJF: JEF's record IB quarter covering April–May 2026 (the first two months of RJF's fiscal 3Q) is the most directly comparable peer data point. The strong advisory and equity underwriting environment during this period is a meaningful positive signal for RJF's Capital Markets segment. JEF's strength in municipal securities is also a positive read-through for RJF's fixed income business.
• Limitation: JEF's growth was partly driven by firm-specific market share gains. JEF's quarter ends May 31, covering only April–May of RJF's June quarter; June activity is not captured.

Expenses (Neutral read-through):

• JEF's compensation ratio was 53.9% (vs. 52.3% prior year). Non-compensation expenses rose on higher brokerage/clearing fees tied to increased equities volumes and higher technology costs. Non-compensation ratio improved to 31.8% from 39.4% as revenue growth outpaced expense growth.
• Read-through to RJF: If RJF experiences similar revenue strength, operating leverage should allow expense ratios to improve. The industry-wide increase in technology costs is consistent with RJF's own $1.1B+ annual technology investment.

Source: Jefferies Financial Group 2Q 2026 Earnings Release (June 24, 2026; quarter ended May 31, 2026).

Charles Schwab (SCHW) — 2Q 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026)

Wealth Management / NII / Cash Sorting (Positive read-through):

• SCHW reported record results, attracting 1.4M new brokerage accounts and $120B in core net new assets (+50% YoY). Managed investing net flows increased 53% YoY. Net interest revenue rose 19% YoY, driven by increased lending utilization, reduction of high-cost borrowings, and demand for long-short strategies. Bank lending balances reached $67B (+33% YoY). Transactional sweep cash increased by $24.2B in 2Q, with year-to-date underlying cash "performing better than initial expectations."
• SCHW guided for full-year 2026 NIM to expand to 3.0–3.1% on average, finishing the year in the 3.25–3.30% range.
• Read-through to RJF: Schwab's better-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth are a positive signal for RJF's NII trajectory. The strong adoption of pledged asset lines (PAL, up 59% YoY) at Schwab is consistent with RJF's own securities-based lending growth of ~31% YoY. The stabilization of client cash balances at Schwab is encouraging for RJF's sweep balance outlook.
• Limitation: Schwab's banking scale is substantially larger than RJF's. Schwab noted only 0.5% of its clients use lending products vs. 4% industry average, suggesting a different penetration dynamic. Schwab's NNA growth was partly driven by its RIA custody platform, which differs from RJF's adviser-centric model.

Trading (Positive read-through):

• SCHW reported 11.9M daily average trades in 2Q 2026, driving a 28% increase in trading revenue to $1.2B. Management described trading engagement as "sustainable" due to structural shifts in investor behavior (younger investors, options adoption, AI-driven research). SCHW guided for a seasonal pullback in 3Q daily average trades.
• Read-through to RJF: High retail trading activity and client engagement are positive for RJF's brokerage and capital markets segments. The expected seasonal slowdown in 3Q trading volumes is a mild headwind to watch.

Source: Charles Schwab 2Q 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 21, 2026).

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) — 2Q 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026)

NII / Client Assets / Trading (Positive read-through):

• IBKR reported record metrics across commissions, NII, total net revenue, accounts, and client equity. NII rose 23% YoY to over $1B, driven by higher balances and robust margin borrowing. Client equity rose 40% to $930B. Commissions rose 30% YoY to a new record. Total customer DARTs were 4.8M/day (+36% YoY). The S&P 500 was up nearly 15% in 2Q, with markets rising strongly in April and May on strong tech earnings.
• Read-through to RJF: The strong market environment (S&P +15% in 2Q) and elevated client activity levels are positive for RJF's asset management fees (which are billed on beginning-of-quarter AUA balances) and brokerage revenues. IBKR's NII growth despite lower average Fed funds rates (down 70bps YoY) demonstrates that balance growth can offset rate headwinds — relevant for RJF's bank and PCG NII.
• Limitation: IBKR's client base is characterized by active traders who "embrace volatility," which differs significantly from RJF's more traditional wealth management clients. IBKR's NII dynamics are driven by margin lending and segregated cash, not sweep programs.

Source: Interactive Brokers 2Q 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 21, 2026).

LPL Financial (LPLA) — William Blair Growth Stock Conference (June 3, 2026)

Adviser Recruiting / Wealth Management Flows (Mixed read-through):

• LPLA CEO Richard Steinmeier noted a "strong movement to independents" in the marketplace and that LPL had been "increasingly moving the recruiting team back into an external focus" after the Commonwealth integration. He noted a pickup in adviser announcements joining LPL "over the last month or so, maybe even 2 months" (i.e., April–May 2026). LPLA's organic growth had been "a little weaker than normal over the last 6 months" due to Commonwealth integration focus, but management expressed confidence in returning to "mid- to high single-digit" growth.
• Read-through to RJF: The "strong movement to independents" trend is a structural tailwind for RJF's independent contractor channel. LPL's re-engagement of its recruiting team in April–May suggests an active adviser-in-motion environment during RJF's fiscal 3Q, which could support RJF's own recruiting momentum. LPL's temporary organic growth weakness (due to Commonwealth integration) may have created an opening for RJF to capture advisers who might otherwise have gone to LPL.
• Limitation: LPL is the largest independent broker-dealer and captures more advisers in motion than any other firm. RJF competes in the same space but with a different value proposition (culture, technology, stability vs. LPL's scale and economics). LPL's re-engagement of its recruiting team is a competitive headwind for RJF going forward.

Source: LPL Financial William Blair Growth Stock Conference transcript (June 3, 2026).

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since the 2Q print is the successful closing of the Clark Capital acquisition (April 30), which adds ~$37B in AUM and is already reflected in May operating data. The May 27 Analyst & Investor Day reinforced management's long-term confidence, while May operating data confirmed record client assets and stable sweep balances.

• April 30, 2026 — Clark Capital Acquisition Closed: RJF completed the acquisition of Clark Capital Management Group, adding ~$37B in AUM (plus ~$12B in non-discretionary assets, for ~$49B total client assets). Clark Capital will operate as an independent boutique within Raymond James Investment Management. This is the most significant capital deployment event since the 2Q print and will be fully reflected in 3Q FY2026 results. Implication: Adds ~$37B to reported financial AUM, boosting asset management fee revenue. May operating data showed financial AUM at $342.7B (+35% YoY, +15% QoQ), with Clark Capital accounting for the sequential jump.
• May 27, 2026 — Analyst & Investor Day: Management hosted a comprehensive investor day, reaffirming the $20B revenue target by 2030, confirming FY2026 recruiting is on track to exceed the prior year's record $407M of recruited trailing-12 production, and providing detailed Capital Markets outlook (Jim Bunn cited 40% more MDs than pre-COVID, robust pipelines, and a "massive glut" of PE portfolio companies needing monetization). The Board increased the quarterly dividend 8% to $0.54/share. Implication: Reinforced management's constructive tone; dividend increase signals capital confidence. Stock sold off ~8% in the days following, likely on profit-taking after a strong run.
• June 24, 2026 — May 2026 Operating Data (8-K): RJF disclosed May 31 operating metrics: client AUA at a record $1.921T (+21% YoY, +3% QoQ); PCG AUA at $1.851T (+22% YoY); fee-based AUA at $1.157T (+27% YoY); financial AUM at $342.7B (+35% YoY, +15% QoQ, includes Clark Capital); bank loans at $55.3B (+13% YoY, flat QoQ); domestic cash sweep + ESP balances at $55.8B (+3% YoY, flat QoQ). CEO Shoukry noted: "Investment banking pipelines and client activity levels remain strong, but the timing of closings continues to be uncertain." Implication: Record AUA provides strong visibility into 3Q asset management fees. Stable sweep balances are reassuring for NII. The IB timing caveat is the key risk to watch.
• July 14–15, 2026 — Peer Earnings (GS, MS): Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both reported record investment banking revenues for 2Q 2026 (calendar quarter ended June 30), confirming a highly favorable deal-making environment during RJF's fiscal 3Q. Implication: Strongest positive read-through for RJF's Capital Markets segment; consensus IB estimate of ~$234M appears conservative.
• July 21, 2026 — Peer Earnings (SCHW, IBKR): Both reported strong NII and client asset growth for the June quarter, with sweep balances better than expected at Schwab. Implication: Positive read-through for RJF's NII and wealth management segments.
• March 2026 (completed prior to 2Q print) — GreensLedge Acquisition: The acquisition of GreensLedge Holdings (structured credit/securitization boutique) closed in late 2Q FY2026. At the May 27 Investor Day, Capital Markets President Jim Bunn noted GreensLedge is "performing very strongly" a few months post-close, with "a lot of synergy" already visible with investment banking clients. Implication: Incremental revenue contribution in 3Q FY2026 as the first full quarter of GreensLedge integration.

Sources: RJF May 2026 Operating Data 8-K (June 24, 2026); RJF 2026 Analyst & Investor Day transcript (May 27, 2026); RJF 2Q FY2026 Earnings Call (April 22, 2026); GS 2Q 2026 Earnings Call (July 14, 2026); MS 2Q 2026 Earnings Call (July 15, 2026); SCHW 2Q 2026 Earnings Call (July 21, 2026); IBKR 2Q 2026 Earnings Call (July 21, 2026).

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified in the SEC Form 4 database for RJF in the period since the 2Q FY2026 earnings print (April 22, 2026 through July 21, 2026). The absence of notable insider activity is neither a positive nor negative signal in isolation, and is consistent with typical patterns at large financial services firms where executives often operate under pre-established 10b5-1 trading plans.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings database. Search conducted for open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S) filed between April 22, 2026 and July 21, 2026.

Appendix: Key Data Sources & Citations

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals (Adjusted EPS, Net Revenues, Net New Assets, Investment Banking Revenue, PCG NII). Source: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/RJF_US/NMV/IS and related VA endpoints.
• RJF 2Q FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript — April 22, 2026. Source of all management guidance for 3Q FY2026 (asset management fees, NII + RJBDP fees, non-comp expenses, tax rate, share repurchases).
• RJF 2026 Analyst & Investor Day Transcript — May 27, 2026. Source of long-term financial targets, Capital Markets outlook, recruiting trajectory, Clark Capital integration update, dividend increase.
• RJF May 2026 Operating Data (8-K EX-99.1) — June 24, 2026. Source of May 31, 2026 operating metrics (client AUA, fee-based AUA, financial AUM, bank loans, cash sweep balances).
• Goldman Sachs 2Q 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — July 14, 2026. Source of GS peer read-through data.
• Morgan Stanley 2Q 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — July 15, 2026. Source of MS peer read-through data.
• Jefferies Financial Group 2Q 2026 Earnings Release — June 24, 2026 (quarter ended May 31, 2026). Source of JEF peer read-through data.
• Charles Schwab 2Q 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — July 21, 2026. Source of SCHW peer read-through data.
• Interactive Brokers 2Q 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — July 21, 2026. Source of IBKR peer read-through data.
• LPL Financial William Blair Growth Stock Conference Transcript — June 3, 2026. Source of LPLA peer read-through data.
• Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance) — RJF, XLF, SPY daily closing prices April 22 – July 21, 2026. Source of stock performance chart and return calculations.
• SEC Form 4 Filings Database — Insider transaction data for RJF, April 22 – July 21, 2026.