| ROL |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.34 vs. cons $0.34 |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Report |
Organic Revenue Growth (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~7.0% vs. cons 7.5% |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~19.9% vs. cons 20.6% |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Guide |
FY2026 Organic Growth Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~7.5% vs. cons 7.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Guide |
FY2026 Incremental EBITDA Margin Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~22% vs. cons 27.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow Growth Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~10% vs. cons 15% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| ROL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-5.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ROL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-7.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Realized beta to SPX has been near-zero/negative for months (idiosyncratic CFO/margin story decoupled from a rallying tape), so the print itself drives the residual. Our base case has organic growth still short of the 7-8% algorithm (residential still lagging) and EBITDA margin missing as insurance/claims costs (running 3.7% of sales in Q1, worsening trend) fail to moderate as guided — directly validating Bernstein's downgrade thesis just two months after Investor Day reaffirmed 25-35% incrementals. A first call from new CFO Harkins that hedges or softens the incremental-margin language (rather than reaffirming it crisply) forces sell-side models to push out margin recovery into 2027, producing implicit cuts to FY26/FY27 EPS even if headline EPS is roughly in line. That out-period math, plus no clean 'reset' catalyst (unlike a beat-and-raise), points to continued selling pressure and further target cuts over the following days rather than a bounce, despite the stock already being down ~30% and near 52-week lows. |
MEDIUM |