{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.34 vs. cons $0.34",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic Revenue Growth (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~7.0% vs. cons 7.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~19.9% vs. cons 20.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~7.5% vs. cons 7.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Incremental EBITDA Margin Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~22% vs. cons 27.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~10% vs. cons 15% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -7.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Realized beta to SPX has been near-zero/negative for months (idiosyncratic CFO/margin story decoupled from a rallying tape), so the print itself drives the residual. Our base case has organic growth still short of the 7-8% algorithm (residential still lagging) and EBITDA margin missing as insurance/claims costs (running 3.7% of sales in Q1, worsening trend) fail to moderate as guided \u2014 directly validating Bernstein's downgrade thesis just two months after Investor Day reaffirmed 25-35% incrementals. A first call from new CFO Harkins that hedges or softens the incremental-margin language (rather than reaffirming it crisply) forces sell-side models to push out margin recovery into 2027, producing implicit cuts to FY26/FY27 EPS even if headline EPS is roughly in line. That out-period math, plus no clean 'reset' catalyst (unlike a beat-and-raise), points to continued selling pressure and further target cuts over the following days rather than a bounce, despite the stock already being down ~30% and near 52-week lows.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}