RTX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RTX Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.72 vs. cons $1.66 MEDIUM
RTX Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$23.2B vs. cons $22.88B MEDIUM
RTX Report Organic sales growth (YoY) BEAT pred ~+8% vs. cons ~+6% MEDIUM
RTX Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$6.80-7.00 (mid ~$6.90) vs. cons ~$6.85 (FY26) MEDIUM
RTX Guide FY26 Adjusted sales guidance BETTER guide ~$93-94B (mid ~$93.5B) vs. cons ~$93.2B (FY26) MEDIUM
RTX Guide FY26 Free cash flow guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$8.25-8.75B (mid ~$8.5B) vs. cons ~$8.5B (FY26) MEDIUM
RTX Guide Backlog / book-to-bill (munitions framework color) BETTER guide backlog ~$275B+ vs. prior $271B (Q2'26); framework deals ~$multi-B not yet in backlog LOW
RTX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
RTX Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) Likely quality beat-and-raise, but with a beat-and-raise 'mostly assumed' and RTX at a premium multiple (richer than LMT/NOC), the bar is high. Initial pop should be muted (~+1%), and out-period math tempers follow-through: the guide raise largely re-affirms rather than materially lifts FY26 EPS/FCF, munitions framework deals remain out of numbers, and shorter-cycle aftermarket/GTF risks cap upside — so early gains partially fade over the week. LOW