I'll research RTX before writing the preview. Let me pull recent filings, transcripts, and news in parallel.Interesting — there's a preliminary results/strategic update from July 9. Let me read that, the Q1 call, and recent news.The July 9 "preliminary results" transcript is actually a mislabeled Rackspace document, not RTX (Raytheon) — I'll disregard it. The news digest confirms the real RTX setup. Let me pull the actual Q1 2026 earnings materials and recent news/price data.I have strong Q1 data and the Street setup. Let me get recent news and stock price context.Let me pull the most recent RTX news and any analyst actions ahead of the print.I have everything I need. Note: the July 9 "2Q26 Preliminary Results" transcript in the database is actually a mislabeled Rackspace document (all about AMD GPUs, public/private cloud), so I've disregarded it. Below is the preview built from RTX's actual Q1 2026 results, guidance, recent news, and price action.
Report date: Thursday, July 23, 2026 (before U.S. market open) | Call: 8:30 a.m. ET
RTX heads into Q2 as a "beat-and-raise until proven otherwise" story. The stock has already re-rated toward a premium versus defense peers, so the question isn't whether the quarter is good — it's whether it's good enough to justify the valuation and whether management raises guidance for a second straight quarter.
Note the compare is easy on the Pratt side: Q2 2025 was hurt by a work stoppage, so year-over-year growth optics should look favorable.
Q1 2026 was a strong "beat-and-raise" quarter: - Sales $22.1B, +9% reported / +10% organic, with growth across all three channels (commercial OE +6%, commercial aftermarket +14%, defense +9%). - Adjusted EPS $1.78, +21%; free cash flow $1.3B (up ~$500M YoY). - Record backlog of $271B (+25% YoY) — $162B commercial, $109B defense; total book-to-bill 1.14, with Raytheon's trailing-12-month book-to-bill at 1.48. - Management raised FY26 guidance: adjusted sales to $92.5–93.5B (from $92–93B), organic growth 5–6%, adjusted EPS to $6.70–6.90 (from $6.60–6.80), and confirmed FCF of $8.25–8.75B.
A second consecutive raise is widely anticipated. In Q1, roughly $350M of the $500M sales-guide bump came from Raytheon strength. Watch whether the raise this time is again defense-led, whether it flows through to EPS, and — importantly — whether free cash flow guidance moves (it was only "confirmed" at Q1). Given the elevated bar, an in-line quarter with only a token raise could disappoint.
RTX signed five landmark framework agreements with the Department of War covering Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and the Standard Missile family. Critically, these are not yet in backlog. Investors will want an update on finalization, the collaborative funding approach (designed to preserve upfront free cash flow), and any color on the multi-year production ramp and margins. Finalization would provide a firm, long-dated demand signal to RTX and its supply chain. A related July 7 announcement — an RTX/NATO deal to build advanced AMRAAM components in Europe for the first time — reinforces the international demand thread.
The backdrop is favorable: management expects priority areas (munitions depth, integrated air-and-missile defense, counter-UAS, Golden Dome) to see funding increases in the FY27 U.S. budget plus supplementals. Munitions output rose 40%+ YoY in Q1, and Raytheon posted 150 bps of margin expansion. The renewed Iran conflict is a double-edged theme — it pulls demand for air defense and munitions (Patriot, GEM-T, NASAMS, Coyote) but also disrupts Middle East commercial air travel. Note defense stocks have been volatile on the news flow (they sold off in June despite escalation headlines).
This remains the key commercial-aero swing factor: - Q1 showed AOGs (grounded aircraft) down ~15% versus year-end, on PW1100 MRO output up 23% YoY. Watch for continuation of the downward AOG trajectory — the core of the "on-track" powder-metal narrative. - GTF Advantage received aircraft certification and is on track for entry into service later this year; the Hot Section Plus retrofit package (delivering ~95% of the Advantage durability benefit) is due to enter MRO in the back half. Pricing/economics of Hot Section Plus (it's off-warranty) is a watch item. - OE engine margins remain negative but manageable; aftermarket margins are low-double-digit and mix is getting heavier.
Aftermarket grew 14% in Q1 with no visible demand cracks, but management flagged sensitivity to air-travel growth, fuel prices, and airline capacity decisions — particularly at Collins in provisioning and mods & upgrades. Given softer air-travel data and higher jet fuel, watch for any early signs of a lagged effect on the shorter-cycle aftermarket.
RTX drove 70 bps of consolidated segment margin expansion in Q1 despite tariff headwinds, and guides to a small (~$75M) full-year tariff tailwind from mitigations. Separately, RTX paid ~$500M under IEEPA tariffs that were subsequently overturned; a refund process is underway but none of that benefit is in guidance — potential upside if it materializes. Watch tariff commentary given ongoing Section 232/122 developments.
The ramp hinges on supply-chain throughput — rocket motors (concentrated supply base), microelectronics, and critical minerals/rare earths. RTX says it's covered near/medium term on minerals and has had 12 straight quarters of material growth (receipts +13% YoY in Q1). Also watch the Airbus/GTF OE volume negotiations and continued capacity investments (Columbus GA, Huntsville, Andover, Tucson).
The fundamental momentum — record backlog, defense strength, improving GTF fleet health, and multiple guidance-raise drivers — argues for another solid quarter and likely another raise. The risk is expectations: with a beat-and-raise "mostly assumed" and a premium multiple, the reaction will hinge on (1) the magnitude/quality of any guidance raise (especially free cash flow), (2) concrete progress on the munitions framework agreements, and (3) reassurance that commercial aftermarket demand and GTF AOG reductions remain on track. Watch the framework-agreement commentary most closely — it's the largest not-yet-in-numbers catalyst.
Sources: RTX Q1 2026 earnings release and conference call transcript (April 21, 2026); RTX/NATO AMRAAM press coverage (July 7, 2026); pre-earnings news digest (July 17, 2026); market news; and historical price data through July 22, 2026.