RTX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RTX Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.74 vs. cons $1.66 MEDIUM
RTX Report Adjusted Sales/Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$23.3B vs. cons $22.88B MEDIUM
RTX Report Free Cash Flow (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$2.0B vs. cons ~$1.9B LOW
RTX Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide ~$6.80-$7.00 (mid $6.90) vs. cons ~$6.83 (FY2026) MEDIUM
RTX Guide FY26 Adjusted Sales guide BETTER guide ~$93.0B-$94.0B (mid $93.5B) vs. cons ~$93.3B (FY2026) MEDIUM
RTX Guide FY26 Free Cash Flow guide UNCHANGED guide ~$8.25B-$8.75B (mid $8.5B) vs. cons ~$8.6B (FY2026) LOW
RTX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
RTX Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q1'26 offers a direct precedent: RTX beat EPS by 16% and raised guidance, yet the stock still fell (~196 to ~172, a multi-day decline) as a priced-for-perfection valuation triggered profit-taking rather than relief. Into this print RTX has rallied back near those pre-Q1 levels (~$195), reloading the same setup. Even with another beat-and-raise, out-period math (persistent GTF Advantage OE-margin drag of a couple hundred million dollars, unresolved IEEPA tariff refund timing, and Raytheon book-to-bill that's been below 1.0x despite backlog growth) gives the Street reason to trim 2027 estimates on the margin-quality/cash-conversion side even as headline 2026 numbers rise, extending an initial negative reaction over the following days rather than reversing it. MEDIUM