RTX Corporation (RTX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup leans toward another beat — consensus is a manageable bar after Q1's massive upside surprise, and the single biggest swing factor is whether Raytheon's munitions ramp and defense mix can again drive segment operating profit above Street expectations.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for RTX looks achievable but not easy: consensus sits at $1.67 adjusted EPS and ~$22.9B in revenue, both representing modest step-ups from Q1 actuals, and the Street has been gradually nudging estimates higher since the April 21 print. Management's posture has remained confidently constructive — at the May Bernstein conference, RTX reiterated no change in commercial aftermarket buying patterns entering Q2, confirmed GTF AOGs continue to decline, and reinforced that Raytheon framework agreement volumes represent 2–4× current production rates, signaling sustained defense upside. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance directionally, with the FY 2026 EPS consensus now at ~$6.95 vs. RTX's raised guidance range of $6.70–$6.90, suggesting the Street is already pricing in a guidance raise — which compresses the upside surprise potential. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 since the Q1 print (+4.1% vs. +6.2% for SPY), suggesting the market has not fully re-rated RTX despite the strong fundamental backdrop, leaving room for a positive re-rating if Q2 delivers. The key wildcard is commercial aftermarket resilience: TDG and GE Aerospace both flagged a step-back in air travel activity in March–April due to the Middle East conflict, and any softness in Collins or Pratt aftermarket channels could offset Raytheon's defense strength and disappoint on the margin side.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate bar — RTX has beaten on both EPS and revenue in each of the last 8 quarters, and the Street's Q2 estimates imply only modest sequential improvement. Adjusted EPS is the bigger swing factor given Raytheon's defense mix leverage; revenue is more predictable given backlog visibility.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026. FY 2026 guidance as stated on Q1 2026 earnings call (April 21, 2026). Segment guidance not separately provided by management.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Top KPI #1: Adjusted EPS — Diluted Operating

Pattern: RTX has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in each of the last 8 consecutive quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +10.6% — the bar has consistently been set too low, and the Street has not fully caught up despite repeated upside.

Top KPI #2: Net Sales

Pattern: RTX has beaten revenue consensus in each of the last 8 quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +3.8%. Revenue beats have been consistent but smaller in magnitude than EPS beats, reflecting the company's strong operating leverage and favorable mix.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: RTX raised full-year 2026 guidance on both sales and EPS at the Q1 print; no formal revision has been issued since, but management commentary at the May Bernstein conference was incrementally positive on defense demand and neutral-to-constructive on commercial aftermarket.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved higher since the Q1 print across all key metrics, with FY 2026 EPS consensus now above the top of RTX's guidance range — the Street is effectively pricing in a guidance raise at Q2, which sets a higher implicit bar.

The most notable signal is that FY 2026 EPS consensus ($6.95) has moved above the top of RTX's guidance range ($6.90), meaning the Street is effectively pricing in a guidance raise at Q2. If RTX raises the midpoint but keeps the top end unchanged, the reaction may be muted. A raise of the full range — particularly the top end — would be the catalyst for a more meaningful re-rating. FCF estimates have also drifted higher, suggesting the Street sees upside to the maintained FCF outlook.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline as of approximately April 26, 2026 (5 trading days post-print).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: RTX has lagged the S&P 500 since the Q1 print (+4.1% vs. +6.2% for SPY and +3.6% for ITA), suggesting the strong fundamental backdrop has not yet driven a full re-rating — performance has been multiple-driven rather than revision-driven, with the stock recovering from an initial post-earnings selloff.

RTX vs. ITA (Aerospace & Defense ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 21, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

RTX opened the post-Q1 period with a sharp selloff — declining from $187.17 on earnings day to a trough near $172–$173 in late April/early May — as the market concluded the large EPS beat was largely anticipated given the elevated defense demand backdrop and prior run-up. The stock then staged a gradual recovery through May and June, aided by the Bernstein conference (May 27) where management reinforced the GTF and Raytheon narratives, and by a sharp acceleration in early July (reaching ~$201 on July 6–7) likely driven by defense budget news and the $1.1B AIM-9X Navy contract announcement. The stock has since pulled back modestly to ~$194–$195, consolidating ahead of the Q2 print. ITA (the sector ETF) has tracked RTX closely but with slightly less volatility, while SPY has outperformed both on the back of broader market strength. The underperformance vs. SPY suggests RTX's valuation has not expanded materially despite strong fundamentals, leaving room for a positive re-rating if Q2 delivers another beat-and-raise.

Sector ETF used: ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) — appropriate for RTX's Aerospace & Defense sub-sector.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the acceleration of Raytheon munitions demand driven by Operation Epic Fury and the $1.1B AIM-9X Navy contract, which directly validates the framework agreement thesis and supports a Raytheon guidance raise at Q2.

• July 22, 2026 — Pratt & Whitney GTF engines surpass 800 orders and commitments in 2026 YTD. Demonstrates continued strong commercial demand for the GTF platform; positive read-through for Pratt & Whitney aftermarket and OE revenue trajectory. (RTX Press Release)
• July 21, 2026 — Collins Aerospace and Etihad Engineering create nacelle MRO joint venture. Expands Collins' MRO footprint in the Middle East; incremental aftermarket revenue opportunity and strategic positioning in a key growth region. (RTX Press Release)
• July 21, 2026 — Pratt & Whitney Canada to invest $275M CAD in Longueuil facility, with support from Canadian and Quebec governments. Signals confidence in long-term demand for Pratt Canada engines; capacity investment supports the ~70,000-unit installed base. (RTX Press Release)
• July 15, 2026 — House Republicans rolled out a $95B budget-resolution outline with substantial defense and supplemental funding tied to the Iran war. Implication: Accelerates replenishment orders for Raytheon munitions; supports the framework agreement ramp narrative and could drive incremental backlog additions in H2 2026. (Associated Press)
• July 8, 2026 — Jefferies reiterates Buy, raises Q2 segment-adjusted EPS estimate to $1.74 vs. consensus ~$1.67, bumps FY 2026 adj. EPS view to $7.10 (above RTX guidance of $6.70–$6.90). Implication: Bullish analyst positioning ahead of the print; Jefferies also pencils in ~$8.6B of 2026 FCF, arguing defense demand can carry more of the load. (Investing.com)
• July 2026 — Raytheon awarded $1.1B U.S. Navy contract for AIM-9X Block II missiles; plans to lift capacity to ~2,500 missiles/year. Implication: Direct validation of the munitions ramp thesis; capacity expansion signals confidence in sustained demand. (RTX/Raytheon Press Release)
• July 2026 — Raytheon and Diehl Defence working to double global Stinger production capacity to support NATO and European procurement. Implication: International defense demand broadening beyond U.S.; supports Raytheon's international backlog conversion narrative. (RTX/Raytheon Press Release)
• June 2026 — Raytheon selected as one of 12 prime contractors for U.S. Space Force Space Based Interceptor program (part of Golden Dome), partnering with Rocket Lab; initial capability demonstration targeted for 2028. Implication: New classified space effects growth vector not yet in backlog; adds optionality to the Golden Dome positioning narrative. (RTX Summary Knowledge)
• May 27, 2026 — RTX Chairman and CEO presented at Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. Key messages: No change in commercial aftermarket buying patterns entering Q2; AOGs down meaningfully since end of 2025; MRO output up strongly YoY; framework agreement volumes represent 2–4× current production rates; GTF financial and technical outlook intact. Tone: constructively confident across all three segments.
• May 4, 2026 — RTX shareholders approve all proposals and re-elect directors at Annual Meeting. Routine governance event; no material implications for the Q2 print. (RTX 8-K)
• February 2026 — Operation Epic Fury (U.S.-Iran conflict) began, accelerating demand for Raytheon munitions. Implication: Management cited it alongside Ukraine as driving generational demand for integrated air and missile defense; replenishment urgency has increased throughout Q2. (RTX Summary Knowledge)

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from GE Aerospace (Q2 earnings), TransDigm (Q2 earnings), Northrop Grumman (Q2 earnings), Howmet Aerospace (Q1 earnings + Bernstein), and Lockheed Martin (Bernstein) collectively paint a constructive picture for RTX's Q2 — commercial aftermarket demand has been resilient despite Middle East disruption, defense spending is accelerating, and engine MRO slots remain oversubscribed.

GE Aerospace — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 16, 2026)

Read-through relevance: High. GE Aerospace is RTX's closest commercial engine peer (CFM56/LEAP vs. GTF/V2500) and a direct read-through for Pratt & Whitney's aftermarket and MRO trajectory.

• Commercial aftermarket demand resilient despite Middle East disruption: GE reported commercial services revenue up 32% in H1 2026, with services orders up 22% in Q2 and 34% in H1. Management stated "aftermarket demand has been resilient" and "we do not have a demand problem." First-half departures were "roughly flat" but management observed "no changes in customer behavior." Parked aircraft (particularly CFM56) have "actually declined since the beginning of March." RTX read-through: Supports RTX's Q1 commentary that no demand impact has been observed in commercial aftermarket channels; reduces risk of a negative surprise from Collins or Pratt aftermarket softness.
• MRO slots oversubscribed by 40%; record internal shop visit output: GE noted its MRO footprint is "40% oversubscribed on shop visits" and achieved "record internal shop visit output in Q2 and H1." LEAP internal shop visits were up over 50%. Shop visit turnaround times improved by about a week since end of 2025. RTX read-through: Directly positive for Pratt & Whitney's GTF MRO output narrative — if GE's MRO is oversubscribed, Pratt's MRO demand is similarly robust. Supports continued AOG reduction and MRO revenue growth.
• GE raises 2026 guidance across the board: GE raised FY 2026 EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85 (up $0.35 at midpoint from prior high end), FCF guidance to $8.9–$9.2B (up $650M from prior high end), and commercial services growth outlook to "low 20s" from "mid-teens." RTX read-through: A peer raising guidance on the same commercial aerospace demand backdrop is a positive signal for RTX's ability to raise its own FY 2026 guidance at Q2.
• Spare parts orders accelerating: Spare parts orders grew 30% in Q1 and accelerated to "closer to 40%" in the 60 days since Q1 earnings. Management entered Q3 with "more than 95% of spare parts revenue in backlog." RTX read-through: Positive for Collins and Pratt aftermarket parts revenue in Q2; suggests demand has not softened despite macro uncertainty.
• Defense revenue up 16%; DPT orders up 12%: GE's defense segment grew 16% in Q2, with orders up 12%. Management cited "robust demand for services and products, both domestically and with allied partners." RTX read-through: Consistent with Raytheon's defense demand narrative; supports continued strong defense bookings and backlog growth at RTX.

TransDigm (TDG) — Q2 FY2026 Earnings (May 5, 2026)

Read-through relevance: High. TDG is a leading commercial aerospace aftermarket supplier and a direct read-through for Collins Aerospace's aftermarket channels.

• Commercial aftermarket rebounded strongly in Q2, up ~14% YoY: TDG reported commercial transport aftermarket revenue (ex-biz jet) up 16%, with engine and passenger submarkets "both strong." Q2 bookings were "an all-time high in terms of CAM bookings." Management raised commercial aftermarket guidance to "high single-digit to low double-digit" growth for the year. RTX read-through: Directly positive for Collins Aerospace aftermarket — if TDG's CAM is at all-time high bookings, Collins' provisioning and parts/repair channels are likely similarly healthy.
• Middle East disruption caused a step-back in March–April, but no change in ordering activity: TDG noted global RPM growth slowed to 2.1% in March and takeoffs/landings dipped into "slightly negative territory" due to the Middle East conflict. However, management stated they have "not seen a significant change in commercial aftermarket ordering activity" even from Middle Eastern airlines. Excluding the Middle East, March RPM growth was 8%. RTX read-through: Validates RTX's Q1 commentary that no demand impact has been observed; the Middle East disruption appears contained and not spreading to broader aftermarket behavior.
• Defense revenue up ~11% YoY; defense bookings built "sizable backlog": TDG's defense market revenue grew ~11% in Q2, with bookings "increased nicely year-over-year and outpacing sales." Management stated "the current environment is positive for defense spending." RTX read-through: Consistent with Raytheon's defense demand narrative; supports continued strong defense bookings at RTX.
• Supply chain "largely returned to pre-COVID" normalcy: TDG management stated the supply chain has "largely kind of returned to where it was pre-COVID" with no core issues highlighted at recent business unit meetings. RTX read-through: Positive for Collins and Pratt supply chain execution; reduces risk of supply-driven revenue shortfalls in Q2.
• TDG raises FY 2026 guidance: Revenue guidance raised $420M at midpoint to $10.36B (~17% growth); EBITDA guidance raised $210M at midpoint to $5.42B. FCF guidance raised to ~$2.5B. RTX read-through: Another peer raising guidance on the same commercial aerospace demand backdrop; reinforces the case for RTX to raise its own FY 2026 guidance at Q2.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026)

Read-through relevance: High for defense. NOC is a direct peer on defense spending, munitions demand, and backlog dynamics.

• Record $105B backlog; book-to-bill of 1.84x in Q2: NOC delivered $20B in net awards in Q2, driving backlog to a new record high of $105B (up 17% YoY). Full-year book-to-bill guidance raised to "at least 1.25x." RTX read-through: Directly positive for Raytheon's backlog and book-to-bill trajectory — if NOC is seeing record awards, Raytheon's defense bookings are likely similarly strong in Q2.
• Strong bipartisan defense spending support; $1.1T base budget and $67B supplemental request: NOC cited "bipartisan support for defense investment" with the House and Senate Armed Services Committees each supporting $1.1T in the base budget (up ~10% from FY 2026). The administration submitted a $67B supplemental request for operational costs, weapons replenishment, and military readiness. A $350B reconciliation package is also being considered. RTX read-through: Directly positive for Raytheon's munitions and integrated air and missile defense demand; the supplemental and reconciliation packages are incremental to RTX's framework agreement volumes.
• NOC raises FY 2026 guidance; sales now projected at $44B midpoint (>5% organic growth): NOC raised EPS guidance by $1.20 to $28.60–$29.10 and maintained FCF guidance of $3.1–$3.5B. Defense Systems (which includes munitions) expected to step up >$700M in H2, driven by higher ammunition sales. RTX read-through: A defense-pure peer raising guidance on the same demand backdrop is a strong positive signal for Raytheon's ability to beat and raise at Q2.
• PAC-3 second-source qualification completed; $2B framework agreement with LMT: NOC completed qualification as a PAC-3 solid rocket motor supplier and reached a $2B framework agreement with Lockheed Martin. NOC now has 10 multiyear agreements for missile acceleration with up to $10B of sales opportunity over 7 years. RTX read-through: Validates the munitions framework agreement model that Raytheon is also executing; the PAC-3 ecosystem expansion is positive for Raytheon's Patriot/PAC-3 production ramp.
• FMS case approvals accelerating significantly vs. prior years: NOC management noted "a real improvement in the speed of FMS case approvals, being significantly ahead of prior years." Kuwait received State Department authorization for six IBCS systems in May. RTX read-through: Positive for Raytheon's international backlog conversion — faster FMS approvals support the international mix improvement narrative that drives Raytheon margin expansion.

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 7, 2026) + Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026)

Read-through relevance: Moderate-to-high. HWM is a key supplier to both Pratt & Whitney (GTF/F135 turbine airfoils) and Collins Aerospace (structural castings), making its commentary a direct read-through for RTX's supply chain and MRO output.

• Commercial Aerospace growth of 20% in Q1; engine spares up 48%: HWM reported Commercial Aerospace growth of 20% in Q1 2026, with engine spares up 48% (both legacy and next-gen). Spares revenue now represents 23% of overall revenue (up from 21% in FY 2025 and 11% in FY 2019). MRO slots are "also backlogged." RTX read-through: Directly positive for Pratt & Whitney's GTF MRO output — HWM is supplying the turbine airfoils that enable MRO shop visits; strong spares demand confirms the structural MRO demand thesis.
• GTF production increasing through 2026; GTF Advantage parts in production now: HWM confirmed GTF production increased in Q1 and will increase significantly through the balance of 2026. GTF Advantage parts are in production but none have yet reached the outside market; "far higher production in 2027." LEAP-1B changeover tools being produced; full changeover expected by Q3–Q4 2026. RTX read-through: Confirms Pratt & Whitney's GTF production ramp is on track; GTF Advantage supply chain is being built out ahead of 2027 ramp.
• Rare earth supply secured through 2026 and ~90% for 2027: HWM increased rare earth inventory in Q1 2026; now fully covered through 2026 and approximately 90% covered for 2027, with some products secured through end of the decade. RTX read-through: Reduces supply chain risk for RTX's GTF and F135 programs; critical mineral coverage is a key concern management has flagged.
• HWM raises FY 2026 guidance; organic revenue growth guide raised from 10% to 14%: HWM raised FY 2026 revenue guidance to $9.65B (±$75M), EPS to $4.94 (±$0.06), and FCF to $1.75B (±$50M). Q2 2026 guidance: revenue $2.4B, EBITDA $765M, EPS $1.23. RTX read-through: A key RTX supplier raising guidance on the same demand backdrop is a positive signal for RTX's supply chain execution and revenue trajectory.
• Airline traffic held up well through April; no demand issue for engine parts: HWM management noted airline traffic "held up well through April, although some airlines have drawn up lower volume contingency plans." Sufficient backlog through MRO shops for spares requirements. RTX read-through: Consistent with RTX's Q1 commentary; no demand softness observed in the supply chain.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27, 2026)

Read-through relevance: Moderate. LMT is a key defense peer and a direct partner on Patriot/PAC-3 and F-35 programs, making its commentary relevant for Raytheon's munitions and F135 sustainment narratives.

• PAC-3 production ramp to 3x; $4.5B UCA awarded; full 7-year contract potentially in place within 2–3 months: LMT confirmed a $4.5B undefinitized contract action (UCA) for Patriot/PAC-3 was awarded, with the full 7-year framework contract potentially finalized "as early as the next 2 or 3 months." LMT is partnering with the government to "increase PAC-3 production by 3x." RTX read-through: Directly positive for Raytheon's Patriot/PAC-3 production ramp — the framework agreement is progressing toward finalization, which would add significant volumes to Raytheon's backlog.
• Missiles and Fire Control segment projected for mid-teens top-line growth over next 5 years: LMT management guided to "mid-teens top line growth" for MFC over the next 5 years, contingent on framework agreements being completed. Hellfire/JAGM missiles being adapted for counter-UAS role with excess capacity available. RTX read-through: Validates the multi-year munitions demand thesis; Raytheon's framework agreement volumes (2–4× current rates) are consistent with LMT's growth trajectory.
• F-35 engine discussion: Pratt & Whitney strike caused delays; new technology engine discussion ongoing: LMT noted a "strike last year at Middletown" caused delays in F-35 engine production. There is ongoing discussion about whether a new technology engine is "sensible for the F-35, affordable, etc." but this is "not in Block 4." RTX read-through: The F135 sustainment demand narrative remains intact; any new engine discussion is a long-term consideration, not a near-term risk to Pratt & Whitney's F135 revenue.
• International demand for PAC-3 and THAAD: "huge line of international customers": LMT management noted a "huge line of international customers for especially the PAC-3 and THAAD." FMS case approvals accelerating. RTX read-through: Positive for Raytheon's international backlog conversion and margin expansion — international mix (nearly half of Raytheon backlog) carries higher margins.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by executives since the Q1 print — the only transactions are routine equity award grants (RSUs to the Raytheon President) and phantom stock unit accruals to non-employee directors, which carry no informational signal.

Assessment: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by any executive or director since the Q1 2026 earnings print. All transactions are either routine RSU grants (compensation) or phantom stock unit accruals (non-employee director deferred compensation). The absence of any discretionary selling ahead of the Q2 print is a mild positive signal — no insider is reducing exposure. The absence of open-market buying is not unusual for a large-cap defense company where executives hold substantial equity through compensation programs.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data).