RTX Corporation (RTX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Earnings Date: July 23, 2026 Prepared: July 22, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar after RTX pre-released preliminary Q2 results on July 9, and the single biggest swing factor is whether Raytheon's munitions output and margin can again surprise to the upside as it did in Q1.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for RTX looks achievable rather than stretched: consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.67 sits modestly above the Q1 actual of $1.78 on a sequential basis but reflects a reasonable step-up from the $1.56 reported in Q2 2025, and the company's July 9 preliminary results event has already telegraphed strong performance. Management's tone has been consistently confident since the April 21 Q1 print — at the May 29 Bernstein conference, CEO Chris Calio explicitly reaffirmed full-year guidance and noted no change in commercial buying patterns, while Raytheon's rolling 12-month book-to-bill of 1.5x and 40%-plus munitions output growth in Q1 set a high operational bar that appears to be tracking. Estimate revisions have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print (consensus EPS for Q2 moved from ~$1.66 to ~$1.67), suggesting the Street has largely digested the raised guidance and is not chasing numbers higher — a setup that leaves room for a positive surprise rather than a sell-the-news dynamic. The stock is up roughly 4% since last earnings (vs. XAR flat to slightly down), trading at ~31x NTM P/E, a multiple that reflects execution confidence but is not egregiously stretched given the record $271B backlog and accelerating defense mix. The key wildcard is the pace of GTF AOG reduction and MRO output in Q2 — management guided for continued improvement, and GE Aerospace's Q2 print (July 16) confirmed no airline pullback in engine maintenance, a direct positive read-through for Pratt's aftermarket; any upside surprise on Raytheon margins (Q1 came in at 12.2% vs. ~11.3% consensus) or a formal update on framework agreement finalization could be the incremental catalyst.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar across all three segments; Raytheon margin is the bigger swing factor given Q1’s 90 bps beat vs. consensus, while commercial aftermarket at Pratt & Whitney is the key volume driver to watch.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual

Q2 2026 Consensus Est.

YoY Change

FY 2026 Guidance

Adjusted Net Sales ($B)

$22.1B

$21.6B

$22.9B

+6.1%

$92.5–$93.5B

Adjusted EPS (Diluted)

$1.78

$1.56

$1.67

+7.1%

$6.70–$6.90

Free Cash Flow ($B)

$1.3B

-$0.07B

$1.5B

N/M

$8.25–$8.75B

Collins Aerospace Sales ($B)

$7.6B

$7.6B

$7.9B

+3.5%

Mid-SD organic growth

Collins Adj. Op. Margin

17.1%

16.4%

16.8%

+40 bps

Expanding toward 19% LT

Pratt & Whitney Sales ($B)

$8.2B

$7.6B

$8.2B

+7.6%

Mid-SD organic growth

Pratt & Whitney Adj. Op. Margin

8.7%

8.0%

8.5%

+50 bps

Expanding as GTF AM grows

Raytheon Sales ($B)

$6.9B

$7.0B

$7.5B

+7.8%

High-SD organic growth

Raytheon Adj. Op. Margin

12.2%

11.6%

11.8%

+20 bps

Expanding; not capped at 12%

Total Backlog ($B)

$271B

$236B

$279.5B

+18.4%

Record; framework agreements not yet included

Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data; RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 21, 2026); RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript; RTX Bernstein Conference (May 29, 2026). Consensus estimates as of July 22, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Top 2 KPIs: Adjusted EPS & Adjusted Net Sales)

Quarter

Adj. EPS Reported

EPS Consensus

EPS Surprise %

Net Sales Reported ($B)

Sales Consensus ($B)

Sales Surprise %

Q1 2026

$1.78

$1.53

+16.3%

$22.1B

$21.5B

+2.8%

Q4 2025

$1.55

$1.46

+6.2%

$24.2B

$22.7B

+6.8%

Q3 2025

$1.70

$1.41

+20.6%

$22.5B

$21.3B

+5.5%

Q2 2025

$1.56

$1.46

+6.8%

$21.6B

$20.7B

+4.3%

Q1 2025

$1.47

$1.38

+6.5%

$20.3B

$19.8B

+2.5%

Q4 2024

$1.54

$1.39

+10.8%

$21.6B

$20.4B

+5.9%

Q3 2024

$1.45

$1.33

+9.0%

$20.1B

$19.8B

+1.5%

Q2 2024

$1.41

~$1.33

+6.0%

$19.7B

~$19.4B

+1.5%

Pattern: RTX has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in each of the last 8 quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +10%; the beat magnitude has been accelerating, with the last three quarters averaging +14% — suggesting the Street consistently underestimates segment operating leverage, particularly at Raytheon. Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance was raised on April 21 (Q1 print) and has been explicitly reaffirmed at the May 29 Bernstein conference with no subsequent changes; tone is confident and directionally positive on both commercial and defense, with management flagging potential upside from framework agreement finalization and tariff refunds not yet in guidance.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q4 2025 Earnings, Jan 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

Adjusted Net Sales

$92.0–$93.0B

$92.5–$93.5B

$94.2B

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by Raytheon outperformance and lower eliminations; reaffirmed at Bernstein (May 29, 2026)

Adjusted EPS

$6.60–$6.80

$6.70–$6.90

$6.95

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by Raytheon drop-through and lower interest expense; consensus sits above top of guidance range

Free Cash Flow

$8.25–$8.75B

— (unchanged)

$8.6B

Confirmed at Q1 earnings; management expressed comfort with trajectory; ~$500M IEEPA tariff refund potential not included in guidance

Organic Sales Growth

5–6%

— (unchanged)

~5.5%

Reaffirmed at Q1 earnings and Bernstein conference; defense now expected mid-to-high SD (up from mid-SD)

Raytheon Op. Profit Growth

$200–$300M vs. 2025

$275–$375M vs. 2025

~$350M

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by favorable program mix and higher volume; management not capping at 12% margins

Collins Op. Profit Growth

$425–$525M vs. 2025

— (unchanged)

~$475M

Maintained at Q1 earnings; management noted holding off on revision until Q2 results; OE absorption benefit expected to build

Pratt & Whitney Op. Profit Growth

$225–$325M vs. 2025

— (unchanged)

~$275M

Maintained at Q1 earnings; GTF aftermarket growth and AOG reduction are key drivers; negative engine margin expected to ramp up over next several quarters

Sources: RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Call (April 21, 2026); RTX Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference transcript (May 29, 2026).

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus moved only ~$0.01 higher and FY 2026 EPS moved ~$0.03 higher — suggesting the Street has absorbed the raised guidance without chasing numbers; consensus for FY 2026 EPS already sits above the top of management’s guidance range ($6.90), implying the market expects another raise at Q2.

KPI & Period

Estimate ~Apr 28, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline)

Current Consensus (Jul 22, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Earnings Call)

Current Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint

Adj. EPS — Q2 2026

$1.662

$1.669

+0.4%

No explicit Q2 guidance

No explicit Q2 guidance

N/A

Adj. Net Sales — Q2 2026

$22.88B

$22.91B

+0.1%

No explicit Q2 guidance

No explicit Q2 guidance

N/A

Free Cash Flow — Q2 2026

$1.46B

$1.52B

+4.1%

No explicit Q2 guidance

No explicit Q2 guidance

N/A

Adj. EPS — FY 2026

$6.921

$6.949

+0.4%

$6.70–$6.90

$6.70–$6.90 (unchanged)

+3.7% above midpoint ($6.80)

Adj. Net Sales — FY 2026

$94.15B

$94.23B

+0.1%

$92.5–$93.5B

$92.5–$93.5B (unchanged)

+1.2% above midpoint ($93.0B)

Free Cash Flow — FY 2026

$8.508B

$8.596B

+1.0%

$8.25–$8.75B

$8.25–$8.75B (unchanged)

Within guidance range

Adj. EPS — FY 2027

$7.616

$7.649

+0.4%

No FY27 guidance provided

No FY27 guidance provided

N/A

The flat estimate trajectory since the Q1 print is notable: consensus EPS for FY 2026 already sits ~$0.07 above the top of management’s guidance range, implying the Street is pricing in another guidance raise at Q2 — which sets a higher implicit bar even if the stated guidance is not stretched. The ~$500M in potential IEEPA tariff refunds not included in guidance represents a meaningful option value if the refund process accelerates. Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data (as-of April 28, 2026 and July 22, 2026).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: RTX has outperformed both XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF) and the S&P 500 since the Q1 earnings date (April 21, 2026), with the stock up ~4.1% vs. XAR down ~1.2% and SPY up ~6.2%; the relative outperformance vs. XAR reflects RTX-specific execution (record backlog, raised guidance) while the modest lag vs. SPY reflects the stock’s defensive/industrial character and the sell-on-news reaction to the Q1 beat.

Stock Performance Summary (April 21 – July 22, 2026):

Security

Price at Q1 Earnings (Apr 21)

Price Jul 22, 2026

Return Since Q1 Earnings

Indexed (Base=100)

RTX

$187.17

$193.67

+3.5%

103.5

XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF)

$267.46

$264.91

-1.0%

99.0

S&P 500 (SPY)

$704.08

$748.28

+6.3%

106.3

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:

Performance Decomposition: Over the 12-month period, RTX is up ~28.6%, with NTM EV/EBITDA expanding from ~15.2x to ~16.7x — roughly 9.4% multiple expansion contributing to the return alongside earnings growth. Over the 3-month period, the stock is up ~4.1% but the multiple has contracted from ~17.2x to ~16.7x, suggesting the recent move is entirely earnings-driven rather than multiple expansion. Source: Stock price data (Yahoo Finance); valuation decomposition data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is RTX’s July 9 preliminary Q2 results event, which de-risked the print; the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury) is the most consequential macro development, directly accelerating Raytheon munitions demand and replenishment urgency.

7. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is uniformly constructive for RTX’s Q2 2026 setup: GE Aerospace’s Q2 beat confirms commercial aftermarket strength with no airline pullback; Northrop Grumman’s Q2 beat and record backlog validates the defense spending environment; Boeing’s production ramp commentary is a direct positive for Collins OE content; and Lockheed Martin’s framework agreement commentary explicitly names RTX as a co-participant in the same contracting model.

Note on methodology: Only commentary from the last 60 days (on or after May 22, 2026) that explicitly addresses Q2 2026 conditions, forward outlook, or current-quarter trends is included below. Retrospective commentary about peers’ own prior-quarter results is excluded unless it provides explicit forward read-through. Direct RTX read-throughs are distinguished from broad sector color.

GE Aerospace — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 16, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH

Relevance: GE Aerospace is RTX’s closest commercial aerospace peer (engine OEM and aftermarket) and the most direct read-through for Pratt & Whitney’s commercial aftermarket and OE delivery trends.

GE Aerospace — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH

Northrop Grumman — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH

Relevance: NOC is RTX’s closest defense peer and the most direct read-through for Raytheon’s defense segment performance, backlog, and margin trajectory.

Boeing — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH

Relevance: Boeing is RTX’s largest commercial OE customer (Collins Aerospace content on 737 MAX and 787; Pratt & Whitney GTF on A320neo family via Airbus). Boeing’s production ramp commentary is a direct driver of Collins OE revenue and absorption.

Lockheed Martin — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH

Relevance: LMT is RTX’s closest defense peer on missile and air defense systems (Patriot, THAAD, PAC-3) and explicitly named RTX in its framework agreement commentary.

Airlines (Delta, United) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 10–16, 2026) | SECTOR COLOR

Relevance: Airline commentary on maintenance spending, fleet utilization, and demand is sector color for RTX’s commercial aftermarket (Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace). These are not direct RTX read-throughs but inform the demand environment.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Peer

Date

Key Read-Through for RTX

RTX Segment Impacted

Signal

GE Aerospace Q2 Earnings

Jul 16, 2026

Record shop visit output; spare parts orders up ~40%; no airline pullback; FY guidance raised significantly

Pratt & Whitney (aftermarket)

Positive

GE Aerospace Bernstein Conf.

May 27, 2026

Q2 outlook explicitly positive; spare parts orders accelerating to ~40% growth; no commercial behavioral changes

Pratt & Whitney (aftermarket)

Positive

Northrop Grumman Q2 Earnings

Jul 21, 2026

Record $105B backlog; 1.84x B2B; FY EPS raised $1.20; PAC-3 framework agreement; FMS approvals accelerating

Raytheon (defense)

Positive

Boeing Bernstein Conf.

May 27, 2026

737 MAX rate 47 approved; 787 at 8/mth targeting 10; weapons demand ‘through the roof’; PAC-3 contract in progress

Collins (OE); Raytheon (Patriot)

Positive

Lockheed Martin Bernstein Conf.

May 27, 2026

RTX explicitly named as framework agreement co-participant; Patriot/THAAD multi-year awards expected; F135 supply chain ‘edgy’

Raytheon; Pratt (F135)

Mixed

Delta Air Lines Q2 Earnings

Jul 10, 2026

Fuel costs not deterring demand; maintenance not deferred; premium revenue +17%; full-year guidance reaffirmed

Pratt & Whitney; Collins (aftermarket)

Positive

United Airlines Q2 Earnings

Jul 15–16, 2026

EPS beat; FY guidance raised; corporate demand +30% in July; strong forward bookings

Collins (provisioning/mods)

Positive

Saab Q2 2026

Jul 17, 2026

29.8% organic growth vs. ~20% est.; B2B of 2.71x; European defense demand accelerating well above consensus

Raytheon (international)

Positive

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or discretionary sales were identified for RTX in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 21, 2026) through July 22, 2026. The absence of insider selling ahead of the Q2 print is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying is also notable given the stock’s pullback from the Q1 earnings day close.

No Form 4 open-market buy (code P) or open-market sell (code S) transactions were identified for RTX insiders in the SEC filings database for the period April 21, 2026 through July 22, 2026. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified in this period. The absence of insider activity is not unusual for a large-cap defense company in the weeks preceding an earnings release, when trading windows are typically closed. Investors should note that RTX held a preliminary results event on July 9, 2026, which may have further constrained insider trading activity in the pre-earnings quiet period.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Value

Date

Note

No transactions identified

No open-market buys or sells (Form 4 codes P/S) found for RTX Apr 21 – Jul 22, 2026

Appendix: Key Data Sources & Citations