RTX Corporation (RTX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Earnings Date: July 23, 2026 Prepared: July 22, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)
1. Earnings Preview
Key Takeaway: Setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar after RTX pre-released preliminary Q2 results on July 9, and the single biggest swing factor is whether Raytheon's munitions output and margin can again surprise to the upside as it did in Q1.
Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for RTX looks achievable rather than stretched: consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.67 sits modestly above the Q1 actual of $1.78 on a sequential basis but reflects a reasonable step-up from the $1.56 reported in Q2 2025, and the company's July 9 preliminary results event has already telegraphed strong performance. Management's tone has been consistently confident since the April 21 Q1 print — at the May 29 Bernstein conference, CEO Chris Calio explicitly reaffirmed full-year guidance and noted no change in commercial buying patterns, while Raytheon's rolling 12-month book-to-bill of 1.5x and 40%-plus munitions output growth in Q1 set a high operational bar that appears to be tracking. Estimate revisions have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print (consensus EPS for Q2 moved from ~$1.66 to ~$1.67), suggesting the Street has largely digested the raised guidance and is not chasing numbers higher — a setup that leaves room for a positive surprise rather than a sell-the-news dynamic. The stock is up roughly 4% since last earnings (vs. XAR flat to slightly down), trading at ~31x NTM P/E, a multiple that reflects execution confidence but is not egregiously stretched given the record $271B backlog and accelerating defense mix. The key wildcard is the pace of GTF AOG reduction and MRO output in Q2 — management guided for continued improvement, and GE Aerospace's Q2 print (July 16) confirmed no airline pullback in engine maintenance, a direct positive read-through for Pratt's aftermarket; any upside surprise on Raytheon margins (Q1 came in at 12.2% vs. ~11.3% consensus) or a formal update on framework agreement finalization could be the incremental catalyst.
2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar across all three segments; Raytheon margin is the bigger swing factor given Q1’s 90 bps beat vs. consensus, while commercial aftermarket at Pratt & Whitney is the key volume driver to watch.
Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus Est. | YoY Change | FY 2026 Guidance |
Adjusted Net Sales ($B) | $22.1B | $21.6B | $22.9B | +6.1% | $92.5–$93.5B |
Adjusted EPS (Diluted) | $1.78 | $1.56 | $1.67 | +7.1% | $6.70–$6.90 |
Free Cash Flow ($B) | $1.3B | -$0.07B | $1.5B | N/M | $8.25–$8.75B |
Collins Aerospace Sales ($B) | $7.6B | $7.6B | $7.9B | +3.5% | Mid-SD organic growth |
Collins Adj. Op. Margin | 17.1% | 16.4% | 16.8% | +40 bps | Expanding toward 19% LT |
Pratt & Whitney Sales ($B) | $8.2B | $7.6B | $8.2B | +7.6% | Mid-SD organic growth |
Pratt & Whitney Adj. Op. Margin | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | +50 bps | Expanding as GTF AM grows |
Raytheon Sales ($B) | $6.9B | $7.0B | $7.5B | +7.8% | High-SD organic growth |
Raytheon Adj. Op. Margin | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | +20 bps | Expanding; not capped at 12% |
Total Backlog ($B) | $271B | $236B | $279.5B | +18.4% | Record; framework agreements not yet included |
Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data; RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 21, 2026); RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript; RTX Bernstein Conference (May 29, 2026). Consensus estimates as of July 22, 2026.
Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Last 8 Quarters (Top 2 KPIs: Adjusted EPS & Adjusted Net Sales)
Quarter | Adj. EPS Reported | EPS Consensus | EPS Surprise % | Net Sales Reported ($B) | Sales Consensus ($B) | Sales Surprise % |
Q1 2026 | $1.78 | $1.53 | +16.3% | $22.1B | $21.5B | +2.8% |
Q4 2025 | $1.55 | $1.46 | +6.2% | $24.2B | $22.7B | +6.8% |
Q3 2025 | $1.70 | $1.41 | +20.6% | $22.5B | $21.3B | +5.5% |
Q2 2025 | $1.56 | $1.46 | +6.8% | $21.6B | $20.7B | +4.3% |
Q1 2025 | $1.47 | $1.38 | +6.5% | $20.3B | $19.8B | +2.5% |
Q4 2024 | $1.54 | $1.39 | +10.8% | $21.6B | $20.4B | +5.9% |
Q3 2024 | $1.45 | $1.33 | +9.0% | $20.1B | $19.8B | +1.5% |
Q2 2024 | $1.41 | ~$1.33 | +6.0% | $19.7B | ~$19.4B | +1.5% |
Pattern: RTX has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in each of the last 8 quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +10%; the beat magnitude has been accelerating, with the last three quarters averaging +14% — suggesting the Street consistently underestimates segment operating leverage, particularly at Raytheon. Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.
3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution
Key Takeaway: Guidance was raised on April 21 (Q1 print) and has been explicitly reaffirmed at the May 29 Bernstein conference with no subsequent changes; tone is confident and directionally positive on both commercial and defense, with management flagging potential upside from framework agreement finalization and tariff refunds not yet in guidance.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q4 2025 Earnings, Jan 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Adjusted Net Sales | $92.0–$93.0B | $92.5–$93.5B | $94.2B | ↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by Raytheon outperformance and lower eliminations; reaffirmed at Bernstein (May 29, 2026) |
Adjusted EPS | $6.60–$6.80 | $6.70–$6.90 | $6.95 | ↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by Raytheon drop-through and lower interest expense; consensus sits above top of guidance range |
Free Cash Flow | $8.25–$8.75B | — (unchanged) | $8.6B | Confirmed at Q1 earnings; management expressed comfort with trajectory; ~$500M IEEPA tariff refund potential not included in guidance |
Organic Sales Growth | 5–6% | — (unchanged) | ~5.5% | Reaffirmed at Q1 earnings and Bernstein conference; defense now expected mid-to-high SD (up from mid-SD) |
Raytheon Op. Profit Growth | $200–$300M vs. 2025 | $275–$375M vs. 2025 | ~$350M | ↑ Raised at Q1 earnings (Apr 21, 2026); driven by favorable program mix and higher volume; management not capping at 12% margins |
Collins Op. Profit Growth | $425–$525M vs. 2025 | — (unchanged) | ~$475M | Maintained at Q1 earnings; management noted holding off on revision until Q2 results; OE absorption benefit expected to build |
Pratt & Whitney Op. Profit Growth | $225–$325M vs. 2025 | — (unchanged) | ~$275M | Maintained at Q1 earnings; GTF aftermarket growth and AOG reduction are key drivers; negative engine margin expected to ramp up over next several quarters |
Sources: RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Call (April 21, 2026); RTX Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference transcript (May 29, 2026).
4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus moved only ~$0.01 higher and FY 2026 EPS moved ~$0.03 higher — suggesting the Street has absorbed the raised guidance without chasing numbers; consensus for FY 2026 EPS already sits above the top of management’s guidance range ($6.90), implying the market expects another raise at Q2.
KPI & Period | Estimate ~Apr 28, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline) | Current Consensus (Jul 22, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Earnings Call) | Current Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Adj. EPS — Q2 2026 | $1.662 | $1.669 | +0.4% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A |
Adj. Net Sales — Q2 2026 | $22.88B | $22.91B | +0.1% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A |
Free Cash Flow — Q2 2026 | $1.46B | $1.52B | +4.1% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A |
Adj. EPS — FY 2026 | $6.921 | $6.949 | +0.4% | $6.70–$6.90 | $6.70–$6.90 (unchanged) | +3.7% above midpoint ($6.80) |
Adj. Net Sales — FY 2026 | $94.15B | $94.23B | +0.1% | $92.5–$93.5B | $92.5–$93.5B (unchanged) | +1.2% above midpoint ($93.0B) |
Free Cash Flow — FY 2026 | $8.508B | $8.596B | +1.0% | $8.25–$8.75B | $8.25–$8.75B (unchanged) | Within guidance range |
Adj. EPS — FY 2027 | $7.616 | $7.649 | +0.4% | No FY27 guidance provided | No FY27 guidance provided | N/A |
The flat estimate trajectory since the Q1 print is notable: consensus EPS for FY 2026 already sits ~$0.07 above the top of management’s guidance range, implying the Street is pricing in another guidance raise at Q2 — which sets a higher implicit bar even if the stated guidance is not stretched. The ~$500M in potential IEEPA tariff refunds not included in guidance represents a meaningful option value if the refund process accelerates. Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data (as-of April 28, 2026 and July 22, 2026).
5. Stock Performance
Key Takeaway: RTX has outperformed both XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF) and the S&P 500 since the Q1 earnings date (April 21, 2026), with the stock up ~4.1% vs. XAR down ~1.2% and SPY up ~6.2%; the relative outperformance vs. XAR reflects RTX-specific execution (record backlog, raised guidance) while the modest lag vs. SPY reflects the stock’s defensive/industrial character and the sell-on-news reaction to the Q1 beat.
Stock Performance Summary (April 21 – July 22, 2026):
Security | Price at Q1 Earnings (Apr 21) | Price Jul 22, 2026 | Return Since Q1 Earnings | Indexed (Base=100) |
RTX | $187.17 | $193.67 | +3.5% | 103.5 |
XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF) | $267.46 | $264.91 | -1.0% | 99.0 |
S&P 500 (SPY) | $704.08 | $748.28 | +6.3% | 106.3 |
Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:
- Apr 21, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings beat (EPS $1.78 vs. $1.53 consensus); guidance raised; stock declined on the day (sell-the-news), closing at $187.17 vs. prior close of ~$196.
- May 29, 2026: Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference — CEO reaffirmed full-year guidance, confirmed no change in commercial buying patterns, and provided additional color on GTF AOG trajectory and Raytheon framework agreements.
- Jul 2, 2026: Stock reached a post-earnings high of $199.25, driven by defense demand optimism and Iran conflict escalation driving munitions demand expectations.
- Jul 7–8, 2026: Stock pulled back to ~$194–$195 as Iran ceasefire collapsed and broader defense sector rotated; RTX held up better than XAR peers.
- Jul 9, 2026: RTX held a 2Q26 Preliminary Results and Strategic Update event, providing early visibility into Q2 performance ahead of the July 23 earnings call.
Performance Decomposition: Over the 12-month period, RTX is up ~28.6%, with NTM EV/EBITDA expanding from ~15.2x to ~16.7x — roughly 9.4% multiple expansion contributing to the return alongside earnings growth. Over the 3-month period, the stock is up ~4.1% but the multiple has contracted from ~17.2x to ~16.7x, suggesting the recent move is entirely earnings-driven rather than multiple expansion. Source: Stock price data (Yahoo Finance); valuation decomposition data.
6. Material News & Developments
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is RTX’s July 9 preliminary Q2 results event, which de-risked the print; the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury) is the most consequential macro development, directly accelerating Raytheon munitions demand and replenishment urgency.
- Jul 9, 2026 — RTX 2Q26 Preliminary Results & Strategic Update: RTX held an investor event providing preliminary Q2 2026 results and strategic commentary ahead of the July 23 earnings call. This event significantly de-risked the print and provided early visibility into segment performance. Implication: Reduces binary risk around the print; focus shifts to guidance raise magnitude and framework agreement updates.
- Jul 7, 2026 — Raytheon/NATO AMRAAM European Manufacturing Agreement: Raytheon signed an agreement with a coalition of NATO allies to conduct feasibility studies qualifying new European suppliers for AMRAAM components — the first time advanced AMRAAM components would be built on European soil. Other nations expected to join. Implication: Expands industrial capacity for one of Raytheon’s highest-demand munitions programs; positive for long-term international backlog conversion.
- Feb–Jul 2026 — Operation Epic Fury (U.S.-Iran Conflict): The U.S. military conflict with Iran, beginning in February 2026, has dramatically accelerated demand for Raytheon munitions including Patriot, AMRAAM, Tomahawk, and Standard Missile family. U.S. strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz continued through July 2026, with the Pentagon facing budget shortfalls from the conflict. Implication: Generational demand pull for Raytheon’s effectors and sensors; framework agreement urgency elevated; potential for supplemental appropriations.
- Q1 2026 (Apr 21) — Five Landmark Framework Agreements Signed: Raytheon signed five framework agreements with the Department of War covering Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and the Standard Missile family — representing 7-year firm demand at 2–4x current production rates. Agreements not yet in the $271B backlog. Implication: Largest structural demand signal in RTX’s history; finalization of definitive agreements is the key near-term catalyst.
- Jul 13, 2026 — L3Harris $955M Golden Dome Satellite Contract: L3Harris secured a $955M Space Force contract for 18 Golden Dome missile-tracking satellites. Raytheon was previously selected as one of 12 prime contractors for the Space Based Interceptor program (partnering with Rocket Lab). Implication: Validates RTX’s Golden Dome positioning; space effects portfolio emerging as an incremental growth vector.
- Jul 20, 2026 — Lockheed Martin PAC-3 ACE Missile Announcement: Lockheed Martin announced a new lower-cost PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector (ACE) missile at less than half the cost of PAC-3 MSE (~$4M/round), with initial production possible within 36 months. RTX makes the Patriot launcher system. Implication: Expands the addressable market for Patriot-family systems; RTX launcher content benefits from higher interceptor volumes regardless of which interceptor variant is used.
- May 27, 2026 — Boeing 737 MAX Rate 47 FAA Approval: Boeing received FAA capstone review approval to ramp 737 production to 47 aircraft/month (from 42), with aspirations to reach 63/month. Implication: Direct positive for Collins Aerospace OE content and absorption; Pratt & Whitney GTF deliveries to Airbus also expected to grow year-over-year.
- Jun 24, 2026 — Lockheed Martin $35B THAAD Contract: Lockheed Martin secured a $35B Pentagon contract to produce THAAD interceptors, replenishing stockpiles drawn down by the Iran conflict. Implication: Confirms the scale of integrated air and missile defense demand; RTX’s Raytheon segment (Patriot, NASAMS, LTAMDS) is a direct beneficiary of the same demand environment.
- Jul 20, 2026 — Trump Executive Order on Defense Supply Chain Screening: President Trump signed an executive order requiring defense contractors to screen supply chains and eliminate foreign suppliers of concern (including China). Implication: Validates RTX’s vertical integration strategy (Asheville turbine airfoil casting facility); potential compliance costs but also competitive moat for companies with domestic supply chains.
- Jul 21, 2026 — Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 Beat & Guidance Raise: NOC reported Q2 EPS of $7.68 and raised FY 2026 EPS guidance by $1.20, with record backlog of $105B and book-to-bill of 1.84x. Implication: Confirms the defense spending environment is robust and that the Street is underestimating defense segment earnings power — a direct positive read-through for Raytheon.
- Jul 16, 2026 — GE Aerospace Q2 2026 Beat & Guidance Raise: GE Aerospace reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.02 (vs. $1.86 consensus), raised FY 2026 EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85, and reported record internal shop visit output with spare parts orders up ~40% in the last 60 days. Implication: Strongest possible read-through for Pratt & Whitney commercial aftermarket; confirms no airline pullback in engine maintenance despite fuel cost headwinds.
7. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is uniformly constructive for RTX’s Q2 2026 setup: GE Aerospace’s Q2 beat confirms commercial aftermarket strength with no airline pullback; Northrop Grumman’s Q2 beat and record backlog validates the defense spending environment; Boeing’s production ramp commentary is a direct positive for Collins OE content; and Lockheed Martin’s framework agreement commentary explicitly names RTX as a co-participant in the same contracting model.
Note on methodology: Only commentary from the last 60 days (on or after May 22, 2026) that explicitly addresses Q2 2026 conditions, forward outlook, or current-quarter trends is included below. Retrospective commentary about peers’ own prior-quarter results is excluded unless it provides explicit forward read-through. Direct RTX read-throughs are distinguished from broad sector color.
GE Aerospace — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 16, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH
Relevance: GE Aerospace is RTX’s closest commercial aerospace peer (engine OEM and aftermarket) and the most direct read-through for Pratt & Whitney’s commercial aftermarket and OE delivery trends.
- Commercial aftermarket no slowdown confirmed: GE Aerospace reported Q2 services revenue up 26%, with internal shop visit revenue up 25% and spare parts revenue up over 25%. The company reported “record internal shop visit output in the quarter.” This is a direct positive read-through for Pratt & Whitney’s GTF and V2500 aftermarket, which management had flagged as the key demand driver for Q2.
- Spare parts orders accelerating into Q2: At the May 27 Bernstein conference, GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp stated that spare parts orders, which were up 30% through Q1, had accelerated to “closer to 40%” in the last 60 days, with “no real slowdown in terms of what airlines are doing.” This directly validates RTX management’s May 29 Bernstein commentary that “we have not seen any change in buying patterns” and “no change in airline behavior.”
- No airline pullback despite fuel costs: GE Aerospace confirmed “no operational impact, no commercial behavioral changes on the part of our customers” despite elevated fuel prices from the Iran conflict. Parked aircraft declined in May vs. April and vs. the beginning of the year, suggesting no looming retirement wave. This is a direct positive for Pratt’s aftermarket demand durability.
- Supply chain improving: GE Aerospace reported “increased material input from priority suppliers double-digits sequentially and year-over-year,” enabling record shop visit output. This is consistent with RTX’s Q1 commentary on castings (+10% YoY) and forgings (+18% YoY) and suggests the supply chain environment for MRO-critical materials continued to improve into Q2.
- Full-year guidance raised significantly: GE Aerospace raised FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85 (from $7.10–$7.40) and free cash flow to $8.9–$9.2B (from $8.0–$8.4B). The magnitude of the raise (mid-point up ~$0.50 on EPS) signals that Q2 commercial aftermarket significantly exceeded expectations — a strong positive signal for Pratt’s aftermarket trajectory.
- Defense segment also strong: GE Aerospace’s Defense & Propulsion Technologies segment revenue grew 16% in Q2, with DPT full-year guidance raised to low double-digit growth (from mid-to-high single digits). This confirms the defense propulsion demand environment that benefits Pratt’s F135 sustainment business.
GE Aerospace — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH
- Q2 2026 outlook explicitly positive: CEO Culp stated “I think we feel very good about the second quarter” based on “sheer backlog, both from a new make and from an aftermarket perspective” and confirmed no commercial behavioral changes from customers. This was a direct forward-looking statement about Q2 conditions as of late May.
- LEAP deliveries up 63% in Q1, targeting 15% growth for full year: GE Aerospace’s LEAP engine deliveries were up 63% in Q1, with full-year guidance of +15% (described as “somewhat modest given the very strong first quarter”). This confirms Boeing and Airbus production ramp momentum that drives Collins Aerospace OE content.
- Defense business targeting high-single-digit growth: GE Aerospace’s defense business (DPT, ~$12B) was targeting high-single-digit growth, with an anticipated “uptick in sustainment” from the FY 2027 budget. This is sector color confirming the defense propulsion demand environment.
Northrop Grumman — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 21, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH
Relevance: NOC is RTX’s closest defense peer and the most direct read-through for Raytheon’s defense segment performance, backlog, and margin trajectory.
- Record backlog and 1.84x book-to-bill confirms defense demand environment: NOC reported Q2 net awards of $20B, driving backlog to a record $105B with a book-to-bill of 1.84x. CEO Kathy Warden stated: “We are raising our sales and EPS guidance for the year based on our confidence in our team and the demand for our technologies. As momentum accelerates across our portfolio and the budgets continue to support demand...” This is a direct positive read-through for Raytheon’s backlog conversion and order momentum.
- FY 2026 guidance raised: NOC raised FY 2026 sales guidance by $250M (to $43.75–$44.25B) and EPS by $1.20 (to $28.60–$29.10). The magnitude of the EPS raise confirms that defense segment earnings power is being consistently underestimated by the Street — a pattern directly applicable to Raytheon.
- PAC-3 qualification and framework agreements: NOC completed qualification activities to become a PAC-3 supplier and reached a $2B framework agreement with the DoD and Lockheed Martin, with PAC-3 SRM production awards expected later in 2026. NOC also noted ten multi-year agreements for missile acceleration representing up to $10B in sales over seven years. This confirms the framework agreement model is being adopted broadly across the defense sector, validating RTX’s five framework agreements.
- Bipartisan defense budget support confirmed: NOC noted Congressional committees supporting $1.1T in the FY 2027 DoD base budget (up ~10% from FY 2026), plus a $67B supplemental request and $350B reconciliation package. This is sector color confirming the budget environment that underpins Raytheon’s multi-year demand outlook.
- FMS process significantly improved: NOC noted that “FMS cases are being approved at a much more rapid rate than in prior years,” with Kuwait receiving authorization for six IBCS systems and letters of request from UAE and Qatar. This is a direct positive read-through for Raytheon’s international backlog conversion, where ~48% of Raytheon’s backlog is international.
- Saab Q2 2026 (July 17, 2026) — Sector color: Saab reported Q2 organic sales growth of 29.8% (vs. ~20% Street estimate) with a book-to-bill of 2.71x, confirming that European defense demand is accelerating well beyond consensus expectations. This is broad sector color validating the international defense demand environment that benefits Raytheon’s growing international backlog.
Boeing — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH
Relevance: Boeing is RTX’s largest commercial OE customer (Collins Aerospace content on 737 MAX and 787; Pratt & Whitney GTF on A320neo family via Airbus). Boeing’s production ramp commentary is a direct driver of Collins OE revenue and absorption.
- 737 MAX rate 47 approved and ramping: Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed the company passed the FAA capstone review for rate 47/month and is “now in the process of running the line at the 47 a month rate,” expecting stabilization within “the next couple of months.” Boeing also confirmed aspirations to reach rate 52 and eventually 63. This is a direct positive for Collins Aerospace OE content and absorption leverage — RTX management explicitly cited Boeing’s rate 47 approval at the May 29 Bernstein conference as a positive catalyst.
- 787 at 8/month, targeting 10 by year-end: Boeing confirmed 787 production at 8/month with a target of 10/month by year-end. Boeing noted it had “fallen behind in delivery on engines” (GEnx) in Q1, requiring a recovery plan with GE. This is sector color on widebody production ramp; Collins has significant 787 content.
- Defense weapons demand ‘through the roof’: Boeing CEO stated “our Weapons business is — the demand is through the roof” and specifically mentioned working on “the big PAC-3 production contract to replace all the Patriot Seekers that have been shot.” This is a direct positive read-through for Raytheon’s Patriot system demand, as RTX makes the Patriot launcher system.
- Commercial aftermarket resilient: Boeing’s services business (BGS) maintained 17%+ margins, with any Middle East transactional business decline “totally offset” by higher transactional business elsewhere. This is sector color confirming commercial aftermarket resilience.
Lockheed Martin — Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026) | DIRECT READ-THROUGH
Relevance: LMT is RTX’s closest defense peer on missile and air defense systems (Patriot, THAAD, PAC-3) and explicitly named RTX in its framework agreement commentary.
- RTX explicitly named as framework agreement co-participant: LMT CEO James Taiclet stated that “RTX was to follow with some of their systems” in adopting the commercial contracting model and framework agreements initiated with the DoD, and specifically mentioned “a couple of RTX programs” in the context of these agreements. This is a direct confirmation that RTX’s framework agreements are part of a coordinated DoD strategy, not an isolated event.
- Patriot and THAAD framework agreements provide multi-year demand visibility: LMT CFO Evan Scott noted that the company’s MFC segment outlook “assumes a PAC-3, Patriot and THAAD awards this year” with “framework agreements that give us confidence that these are going to be future multiyear procurements.” RTX makes the Patriot launcher system and is a key supplier to the Patriot ecosystem.
- F-35 engine supply chain ‘edgy’ after prior-year strike: LMT CEO noted that a strike “last year” at Middletown (Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine facility) caused delays in F-35 engine production, making the current situation “a little bit edgy.” This is a direct read-through for Pratt’s F135 OE delivery schedule and potential residual supply chain risk heading into Q2.
- New technology F-35 engine discussions ongoing: LMT CEO confirmed “there is and has been over the years conversation about is a new technology engine sensible for the F-35” and described it as “a separate line of discussion between us, RTX and the government, which is not adjudicated yet.” This is a forward-looking strategic item for Pratt & Whitney’s F135 franchise.
Airlines (Delta, United) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 10–16, 2026) | SECTOR COLOR
Relevance: Airline commentary on maintenance spending, fleet utilization, and demand is sector color for RTX’s commercial aftermarket (Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace). These are not direct RTX read-throughs but inform the demand environment.
- Delta Q2 2026 (July 10): Delta reaffirmed full-year profit guidance despite record fuel costs, with premium revenue up 17% and corporate demand strong. CEO Ed Bastian stated the company recovered “about 60% of the fuel cost increase in the second quarter, faster than historically.” Delta explicitly stated fuel prices are “not deterring demand” across business lines. Sector color: Airlines are not deferring maintenance or shop visits despite elevated fuel costs — consistent with RTX management’s Q1 commentary that no demand impact has been observed.
- United Airlines Q2 2026 (July 15–16): United reported Q2 EPS of $1.99 (vs. $1.85 consensus) and raised full-year EPS guidance mid-point to $10 (from $9). CEO Scott Kirby noted corporate demand in July up 30% and fourth-quarter yields booked 14 points higher than prior year. Sector color: Strong airline demand and pricing power reduces the risk of maintenance deferrals — a positive for Collins provisioning and mods/upgrades channels that RTX management flagged as the most discretionary aftermarket categories.
- Honeywell Aerospace (July 20): Honeywell Aerospace CEO Jim Currier stated the company is operating in an “unprecedented demand environment” for both commercial and defense businesses, with IndiGo selecting Honeywell avionics for 810 A320neo-family aircraft. Sector color: Confirms the commercial aerospace avionics and systems demand environment that benefits Collins Aerospace.
Peer Read-Through Summary Table
Peer | Date | Key Read-Through for RTX | RTX Segment Impacted | Signal |
GE Aerospace Q2 Earnings | Jul 16, 2026 | Record shop visit output; spare parts orders up ~40%; no airline pullback; FY guidance raised significantly | Pratt & Whitney (aftermarket) | Positive |
GE Aerospace Bernstein Conf. | May 27, 2026 | Q2 outlook explicitly positive; spare parts orders accelerating to ~40% growth; no commercial behavioral changes | Pratt & Whitney (aftermarket) | Positive |
Northrop Grumman Q2 Earnings | Jul 21, 2026 | Record $105B backlog; 1.84x B2B; FY EPS raised $1.20; PAC-3 framework agreement; FMS approvals accelerating | Raytheon (defense) | Positive |
Boeing Bernstein Conf. | May 27, 2026 | 737 MAX rate 47 approved; 787 at 8/mth targeting 10; weapons demand ‘through the roof’; PAC-3 contract in progress | Collins (OE); Raytheon (Patriot) | Positive |
Lockheed Martin Bernstein Conf. | May 27, 2026 | RTX explicitly named as framework agreement co-participant; Patriot/THAAD multi-year awards expected; F135 supply chain ‘edgy’ | Raytheon; Pratt (F135) | Mixed |
Delta Air Lines Q2 Earnings | Jul 10, 2026 | Fuel costs not deterring demand; maintenance not deferred; premium revenue +17%; full-year guidance reaffirmed | Pratt & Whitney; Collins (aftermarket) | Positive |
United Airlines Q2 Earnings | Jul 15–16, 2026 | EPS beat; FY guidance raised; corporate demand +30% in July; strong forward bookings | Collins (provisioning/mods) | Positive |
Saab Q2 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 | 29.8% organic growth vs. ~20% est.; B2B of 2.71x; European defense demand accelerating well above consensus | Raytheon (international) | Positive |
8. Insider Transaction Activity
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or discretionary sales were identified for RTX in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 21, 2026) through July 22, 2026. The absence of insider selling ahead of the Q2 print is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying is also notable given the stock’s pullback from the Q1 earnings day close.
No Form 4 open-market buy (code P) or open-market sell (code S) transactions were identified for RTX insiders in the SEC filings database for the period April 21, 2026 through July 22, 2026. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified in this period. The absence of insider activity is not unusual for a large-cap defense company in the weeks preceding an earnings release, when trading windows are typically closed. Investors should note that RTX held a preliminary results event on July 9, 2026, which may have further constrained insider trading activity in the pre-earnings quiet period.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
No transactions identified | — | — | — | — | No open-market buys or sells (Form 4 codes P/S) found for RTX Apr 21 – Jul 22, 2026 |
Appendix: Key Data Sources & Citations
- Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals (Net Sales, EPS, FCF, segment sales and margins, backlog). Source: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/RTX/NMV/IS and related VA endpoints.
- RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Release — April 21, 2026. Segment actuals, full-year guidance update, backlog figures.
- RTX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — April 21, 2026. Management commentary on GTF AOG trajectory, Raytheon framework agreements, tariff impact, commercial aftermarket outlook.
- RTX Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript — May 29, 2026. CEO reaffirmation of guidance, GTF MRO/AOG update, Raytheon margin commentary, commercial demand confirmation.
- GE Aerospace Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Call Transcript — July 16, 2026. Commercial aftermarket read-through, shop visit output, spare parts orders, guidance raise.
- GE Aerospace Bernstein Conference Transcript — May 27, 2026. Q2 2026 forward outlook, spare parts order acceleration, parked aircraft trends.
- Northrop Grumman Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Call Transcript — July 21, 2026. Defense demand read-through, backlog, framework agreements, FMS acceleration.
- Boeing Bernstein Conference Transcript — May 27, 2026. 737 MAX rate 47 approval, 787 production ramp, weapons demand commentary.
- Lockheed Martin Bernstein Conference Transcript — May 27, 2026. RTX framework agreement co-participation, Patriot/THAAD multi-year awards, F135 supply chain commentary.
- Stock Price Data — Yahoo Finance via Implied platform. RTX, XAR, SPY daily closing prices April 21 – July 22, 2026.
- SEC Form 4 Filings Database — Insider transaction data for RTX, April 21 – July 22, 2026.
- Public News Sources — WSJ, Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg (various dates). RTX/Raytheon AMRAAM NATO agreement (Jul 7); LMT PAC-3 ACE announcement (Jul 20); NOC Golden Dome satellite contract (Jul 13); Boeing 737 MAX rate 47 (May 27); LMT $35B THAAD contract (Jun 24).