SCHW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SCHW Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.58 vs. cons $1.53 MEDIUM
SCHW Report Net revenue BEAT pred ~$6.86B vs. cons $6.78B MEDIUM
SCHW Report Net interest margin IN-LINE pred ~2.93% vs. cons 2.91% MEDIUM
SCHW Guide FY2026 adj. EPS scenario refresh BETTER guide ~$6.15 vs. cons $5.98 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SCHW Guide 2H26 NIM trajectory (fewer rate cuts) BETTER guide ~2.95-3.00% vs. cons 2.92% (2H26) LOW
SCHW Guide Core NNA / asset gathering BETTER pred ~$130B vs. cons $120B (2Q26) MEDIUM
SCHW Guide Transactional sweep cash (tax-season drawdown) UNCHANGED guide ~$450B vs. cons $455B (2Q26) LOW
SCHW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% LOW
SCHW Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (FADE) A beat plus a raised full-year scenario is the base case, but the stock has already round-tripped ~+20% off the late-May mid-$80s low back to ~$102.5, near YTD highs — expectations are constructive and much of the earnings power is re-priced in. With cash facing the seasonal April tax drawdown and the AI/cash-optimizer overhang still capping the multiple, a solid-but-priced-in print risks sell-the-news; even a guide raise likely gets faded as the out-period math (fewer rate cuts already known, RPT compression, tough NNA comps) tempers upward EPS revisions after the initial pop. LOW