SCHW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SCHW Report Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.57 vs. cons $1.53 MEDIUM
SCHW Report Q2 2026 Total Net Revenue BEAT pred ~$6.85B vs. cons $6.78B MEDIUM
SCHW Report Q2 2026 Core Net New Assets BEAT pred ~$145B vs. cons $135B LOW
SCHW Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance (July business update refresh) BETTER guide ~$6.15 vs. cons $5.95 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SCHW Guide FY2026 average Net Interest Margin outlook BETTER guide ~2.95% vs. cons 2.85% (FY2026 avg NIM) MEDIUM
SCHW Guide FY2026 Adjusted pretax profit margin target BETTER guide ~52% vs. cons 51% (FY2026) LOW
SCHW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% LOW
SCHW Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Bar is extremely high into the print (stock +11% in 3 weeks, consensus already models +32.7% y/y EPS growth and a full-year guide raise). Precedent from Q1 2026 (record results, yet stock fell ~7.6% idiosyncratically the next day on April 16) shows SCHW punishes even strong prints when cash-sweep/NIM/trade-monetization details underwhelm relative to priced-in optimism. Even if Q2 beats and FY26 EPS guidance is raised, the raise is largely anticipated (management pre-announced it would come this call), so incremental EPS revisions upside is limited while any softness in transactional sweep cash, revenue-per-trade, or the AI cash-optimizer narrative can trigger post-print de-rating over the following days as sell-side models get trued up and profit-taking follows the pre-print rally. LOW