{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.57 vs. cons $1.53",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Total Net Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.85B vs. cons $6.78B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Core Net New Assets",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$145B vs. cons $135B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance (July business update refresh)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.15 vs. cons $5.95 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 average Net Interest Margin outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.95% vs. cons 2.85% (FY2026 avg NIM)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted pretax profit margin target",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~52% vs. cons 51% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Bar is extremely high into the print (stock +11% in 3 weeks, consensus already models +32.7% y/y EPS growth and a full-year guide raise). Precedent from Q1 2026 (record results, yet stock fell ~7.6% idiosyncratically the next day on April 16) shows SCHW punishes even strong prints when cash-sweep/NIM/trade-monetization details underwhelm relative to priced-in optimism. Even if Q2 beats and FY26 EPS guidance is raised, the raise is largely anticipated (management pre-announced it would come this call), so incremental EPS revisions upside is limited while any softness in transactional sweep cash, revenue-per-trade, or the AI cash-optimizer narrative can trigger post-print de-rating over the following days as sell-side models get trued up and profit-taking follows the pre-print rally.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}