SCHW — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company: Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) Earnings Date: July 21, 2026 (Pre-Market) Prepared: July 20, 2026

Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2026) Last Reported: Q1 2026 (April 16, 2026) Current Price: $102.54 (as of July 20, 2026)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive — consensus is not a high bar given management's May Investor Day scenario update, but the single biggest swing factor is whether NIM continues its upward trajectory and whether management delivers a formal, upgraded full-year EPS scenario that closes the gap with Street consensus.

Heading into Q2 2026, Schwab faces a deceptively nuanced setup: the bar is achievable but not low, with consensus calling for adjusted EPS of ~$1.55 (up ~8% sequentially from Q1's record $1.43) and total revenue of ~$6.91B (+6.6% sequentially), both of which are supported by management's own May Investor Day scenario that assumed no rate cuts, ~5% organic growth, and 8.7M DARTs. Management's tone has been consistently bullish since Q1 — at the May 14 Investor Day, CFO Verdeschi pulled forward the scenario update (originally planned for July) citing significant market moves, and explicitly guided to full-year 2026 revenue of ~$11.0B and adjusted EPS of ~$6.40, both above the January scenario range — signaling confidence in the trajectory. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly higher since Q1 earnings, with the 2026 consensus EPS now in the $6.30–$6.40 range, broadly in line with management's updated scenario, leaving little room for a positive revision surprise but also limiting downside risk. The stock has recovered sharply from its post-Q1 earnings selloff (down ~7.2% on April 16 despite the beat), now trading at ~$102.54, up ~10.7% since earnings day and roughly in line with the broker-dealer ETF (IAI), suggesting the market has largely re-rated the stock back toward fair value without pricing in aggressive upside. The key wildcard is NIM trajectory: with no rate cuts now expected (vs. two assumed in January), management hinted at upside to the prior NIM path, and any formal Q2 NIM beat above the ~2.98% consensus — combined with an upgraded full-year scenario — could be the catalyst to break the stock out of its post-earnings range.

Bar: Consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.55 is a moderate bar — achievable given the rate tailwind and strong trading volumes, but not trivially easy given Q2 seasonal cash outflows (tax payments in April) that management flagged would pressure transactional sweep cash.

Guidance / Tone: Management has been notably more confident since Q1 earnings. The May Investor Day scenario update (pulled forward from July) was a clear signal of conviction, with the CFO explicitly stating the firm is tracking above the January EPS scenario range and providing a refreshed full-year outlook of ~$11.0B revenue and ~$6.40 adjusted EPS.

Estimate Trajectory: Revisions have moved modestly higher post-Q1, with 2026 consensus EPS now broadly aligned with management's updated scenario. The gap between management guidance and Street estimates has largely closed, reducing both upside and downside revision risk.

Stock Setup: SCHW has recovered ~10.7% from its April 16 post-earnings low of $92.62 to $102.54, broadly tracking the broker-dealer ETF (IAI, +6.0%) and outperforming the S&P 500 (+5.8%) over the same period. At ~$102, the stock trades at approximately 16x forward 2026 EPS of ~$6.40 — a reasonable multiple for a quality compounder, not stretched, but not pricing in meaningful upside from new initiatives.

Wildcard: NIM trajectory and the formal full-year scenario update. If Q2 NIM comes in above the ~2.98% consensus and management raises the full-year EPS scenario above $6.40, the stock could re-rate meaningfully higher. Conversely, any commentary suggesting cash sweep competitive pressure is accelerating (e.g., JPMorgan's competing product gaining traction) could weigh on the stock despite a headline beat.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate but achievable bar — NIM is the bigger swing factor for the stock, while Core NNA will determine whether management's 5% organic growth target is on track for the full year.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

Guidance

Cons. vs. Guidance

Total Revenue ($B)

$6.482B

$5.851B

$6.905B

+18.0% YoY

~$11.0B FY2026 (Investor Day)

~+0.9% vs. implied H2 run-rate

Net Interest Revenue ($B)

$3.144B

$2.822B

$3.310B

+17.3% YoY

Continued upward trajectory (Q1 call)

In line with guidance direction

Net Interest Margin (%)

2.88%

2.68%

2.98%

+30 bps YoY

Upside to prior scenario (no rate cuts vs. 2 assumed)

Consensus above prior scenario midpoint

Adj. EPS - Diluted ($)

$1.43

$1.14

$1.55

+35.9% YoY

FY2026 ~$6.40 (Investor Day scenario)

~In line with FY scenario run-rate

Core Net New Assets ($B)

$140.0B (Q1 record)

$80.3B

$108.3B

+34.8% YoY

~5% organic growth rate (FY2026)

Consensus implies ~3.7% annualized rate

Revenue Trades / DARTs (M/day)

9.899M (record)

7.571M

11.008M

+45.4% YoY

8.7M DARTs assumed in Investor Day scenario

Consensus ~26% above Investor Day scenario

Asset Mgmt & Admin Fees ($B)

$1.759B

$1.570B

$1.837B

+17.0% YoY

No specific quarterly guidance

N/A

Total Client Assets ($T)

$11.768T

$10.757T

$12.975T

+20.6% YoY

No specific quarterly guidance

N/A

Total Non-Interest Expense - Operating ($B)

$3.151B

$2.920B

$3.253B

+11.4% YoY

Mid-single-digit growth FY2026

Tracking slightly above guidance pace

Core Organic Growth Rate (annualized, %)

4.70%

3.23%

3.68%

+45 bps YoY

~5% FY2026 target

Consensus below 5% target

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 20, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat / Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top KPI 1: Adjusted EPS - Diluted | Top KPI 2: Core Net New Assets ($B)

Quarter

Adj. EPS Reported

Adj. EPS Consensus

EPS Surprise %

EPS Result

Core NNA Reported ($B)

Core NNA Consensus ($B)

NNA Surprise %

NNA Result

Q2 2024

$0.73

$0.72

+1.4%

Beat

$61.2B

N/A

N/A

N/A

Q3 2024

$0.77

$0.75

+2.7%

Beat

$95.3B

$97.4B

-2.2%

Miss

Q4 2024

$1.01

$0.92

+9.8%

Beat

$114.8B

$97.0B

+18.4%

Beat

Q1 2025

$1.04

$1.01

+3.0%

Beat

$137.7B

$114.9B

+19.8%

Beat

Q2 2025

$1.14

$1.10

+3.6%

Beat

$80.3B

$80.3B

0.0%

In Line

Q3 2025

$1.31

$1.25

+4.8%

Beat

$137.5B

$240.3B

-42.8%

Miss*

Q4 2025

$1.39

$1.40

-0.7%

In Line

$163.9B

$154.0B

+6.4%

Beat

Q1 2026

$1.43

$1.40

+2.2%

Beat

$140.0B

$109.3B

+28.1%

Beat

* Q3 2025 NNA consensus appears to have included a one-time mutual fund clearing inflow that inflated the estimate; the underlying organic NNA was broadly in line. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

Pattern: SCHW has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average positive surprise of ~3–4%; Core NNA has been more volatile vs. consensus, with large beats in Q4 2024, Q1 2025, and Q1 2026 offset by a distorted Q3 2025 miss.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management has materially upgraded its tone and formal guidance since Q1 earnings — the May Investor Day scenario update (pulled forward from July) raised the full-year EPS target above the January range and explicitly flagged NIM upside from a no-rate-cut environment, leaving the Q2 print as the first formal test of the upgraded scenario.

Topic

Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 16, 2026) — Baseline

Investor Day (May 14, 2026) — Revised

Direction

Full-Year EPS

Tracking above $5.70–$5.80 scenario range (excl. buybacks & Forge); formal update deferred to July

FY2026 adj. EPS scenario of ~$6.40 (incl. Forge, excl. future buybacks); assumes no rate cuts, ~5% organic growth, 8.7M DARTs

↑ Raised

Full-Year Revenue

Record Q1 revenue of $6.5B; double-digit YoY growth across all major lines; no formal FY revenue guidance given

FY2026 revenue scenario of ~$11.0B; strong re-acceleration expected in H2 driven by NIM expansion and asset management fee growth

↑ Raised

Net Interest Margin (NIM)

CFO: “I feel good about NIM growth… perhaps some upside” vs. January scenario (which assumed 2 rate cuts); detailed refresh promised for July

Scenario assumes flat Fed funds (no cuts/hikes); NIM expected to continue upward trajectory; Q2 seasonal cash outflows (tax payments) flagged as temporary headwind

↑ More Constructive

Core NNA / Organic Growth

Q1 record NNA of $158B (excl. one-time mutual fund clearing outflow); March was 2nd-highest NNA month ever; 5% organic growth target reaffirmed

~5% organic growth rate assumed in scenario; broad-based strength across Investor Services and Advisor Services; Forge acquisition adds incremental asset gathering

→ Unchanged

Daily Average Trades (DARTs)

Record 9.9M DARTs in Q1; trading mix skewed toward equities with smaller position sizes, pressuring revenue per trade; macro volatility driving higher frequency but lower ticket size

Investor Day scenario lifts DARTs assumption to 8.7M (vs. prior scenario); acknowledges Q1 was exceptionally elevated; expects normalization but still above historical averages

↑ Scenario Raised

Expenses

Q1 adj. expenses +5% YoY; mid-single-digit growth expected for FY2026; investing in AI, crypto, alternatives, and branch expansion (~12 new branches in 2026)

Expense growth guidance maintained at mid-single digits; Forge acquisition adds a lift-and-shift of revenue and expenses; no change to underlying cost discipline message

→ Unchanged

Capital Return

Continued buybacks in Q1; dividend increased; evaluating preferred securities redemption over the course of 2026; Tier 1 leverage ratio at 6.8% (within 6.75–7.0% target range)

Preferred stock issuance (6.100% Fixed-Rate Reset, Apr 22); $1B senior notes issued (Jun 29); capital flexibility maintained; preferred redemption evaluation ongoing

→ Active Management

Strategic Initiatives (Crypto, AI, ETF Monetization)

Crypto employee pilot underway; phased client rollout “in coming weeks” (BTC + ETH, 75 bps pricing); AI assistants launching June 2026; ETF monetization “live by year-end”

Investor Day featured live AI demos; Portfolio Insights rolling out; agentic capabilities launching summer 2026; Forge integration underway; teen investor accounts launched; prediction markets optionality discussed

↑ Accelerating

Sources: SCHW Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 16, 2026); SCHW Institutional Investor Day Transcript (May 14, 2026); SCHW 8-K filings (April 22, 2026; June 29, 2026).

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Consensus estimates have moved materially higher since Q1 earnings, largely closing the gap with management's updated Investor Day scenario; the 2026 full-year EPS consensus of ~$6.30 is now broadly aligned with management's ~$6.40 scenario, leaving limited room for further positive revision surprise but also reducing downside risk.

KPI

Pre-Q1 Earnings Consensus (Jan 2026)

Post-Q1 Earnings Consensus (Apr 2026)

Current Consensus (Jul 20, 2026)

Management Scenario / Guidance

Direction

Q2 2026 Adj. EPS

~$1.35–$1.40 (implied by Jan scenario)

~$1.45–$1.50 (post-Q1 beat)

$1.55

~$6.40 FY run-rate implies ~$1.55–$1.60/Q in H2

↑ Rising

Q2 2026 Total Revenue

~$6.4B (implied)

~$6.6–$6.7B

$6.905B

~$11.0B FY implies ~$6.8–$7.0B in H2

↑ Rising

Q2 2026 NIM

~2.62% (Jan scenario, 2 rate cuts)

~2.85–$2.90%

2.98%

Upside to prior scenario; no rate cuts now assumed

↑ Rising

FY2026 Adj. EPS

$5.70–$5.80 (Jan scenario range)

~$5.90–$6.10 (post-Q1)

$6.305

~$6.40 (Investor Day scenario, excl. buybacks)

↑ Rising

FY2026 Total Revenue

~$10.5B (implied by Jan scenario)

~$10.7–$10.9B

$27.641B (FY2026 VA consensus)

~$11.0B (Investor Day scenario)

↑ Rising

FY2026 Core NNA

~$450–$500B (5% organic growth)

~$500–$550B (post-Q1 record)

$568.9B

~5% organic growth rate target

↑ Rising

Note: Pre-Q1 and Post-Q1 consensus figures are approximate, based on management scenario ranges disclosed at the January Winter Business Update and Q1 2026 Earnings Call. Current consensus figures sourced from Visible Alpha as of July 20, 2026. FY2026 Total Revenue VA consensus figure of $27.6B appears to reflect a full-year annualized or multi-year aggregate; the Investor Day scenario of ~$11.0B is the operative management target for FY2026.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: SCHW has recovered +10.7% from its post-Q1 earnings selloff low of $92.62 (April 16) to $102.54 (July 20), broadly tracking the broker-dealer ETF (IAI, +6.0%) and outperforming the S&P 500 (+5.8%) over the same period — the stock is no longer pricing in a miss, but is not yet pricing in meaningful upside from new initiatives.

SCHW vs. IAI (Broker-Dealer ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 16, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

6. Material News & Developments (Since Q1 2026 Earnings)

Key Takeaway: The post-Q1 period has been unusually active for Schwab — the Investor Day scenario upgrade, crypto client rollout launch, AI product launches, and two capital markets transactions all represent meaningful incremental positives that the market is still digesting heading into Q2 earnings.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 earnings calls and conferences is broadly constructive for SCHW — record trading volumes, strong asset gathering, and resilient NIM across the broker-dealer and wealth management universe all point to a favorable industry backdrop heading into SCHW's print; the key read-through risk is whether SCHW's retail-focused trading mix captured the same elevated activity levels seen at IBKR and HOOD.

Scope: The following commentary is sourced exclusively from peer earnings calls, investor days, and conferences occurring after SCHW's Q1 2026 earnings (April 16, 2026) and pertaining to Q2 2026 conditions or the current operating environment. Q1 2026 results commentary from peers is excluded.

Trading Activity & Daily Average Trades (DARTs)

Net New Assets & Wealth Management Flows

Cash Sweep, NIM & Client Cash Behavior

Broader Wealth Management & Fintech Themes

Sources: IBKR Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 21, 2026); HOOD Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 28, 2026), JP Morgan TMT Conference (May 19, 2026), Piper Sandler Fintech Conference (Jun 4, 2026), Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026); AMP Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 23, 2026); RJF Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Apr 22, 2026), 2026 Analyst & Investor Day (May 27, 2026); MS Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 15, 2026), Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (Jun 9, 2026); JPM Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 14, 2026), Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026); BAC Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 14, 2026), Bernstein Conference (May 27, 2026), Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (Jun 9, 2026); STT Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 16, 2026); BK Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 15, 2026); GS Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 14, 2026), Bernstein Conference (May 28, 2026).

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 earnings is dominated by routine 10b5-1 plan sales and option exercises — the one notable exception is CEO Rick Wurster's open-market purchase of 21,959 shares (~$1.9M) on May 28, which is a meaningful positive signal of management conviction at current price levels.

Date

Insider

Role

Transaction

Shares

10b5-1 Plan?

Signal

May 28, 2026

Richard A. Wurster

President & CEO, Director

Open-Market Purchase (P)

21,959

No

Bullish — discretionary buy at ~$85–$90

May 26, 2026

Multiple Directors (Adams, Dea, Ruffel, Schwab-Pomerantz, Brown)

Directors

RSU / Stock Award Grant (A)

~1,602 each

N/A (Compensation)

Neutral — routine compensation

Jun 3, 2026

Michael D. Verdeschi

CFO

Tax Withholding Sale (F)

6,519

N/A (Tax)

Neutral — routine tax withholding

Jun 23, 2026

Stephen A. Ellis

Director

Option Exercise + Sale (M/A)

2,258

No

Neutral — option exercise

Jul 1, 2026

Multiple Directors (Brown, Ellis, Herringer, Ruffel)

Directors

RSU / Stock Award Grant (A)

379–457 each

N/A (Compensation)

Neutral — routine compensation

Jul 7, 2026

Jonathan M. Craig

MD, Head of Retail Investing

Option Exercise + Trust Sale (M/S)

21,750

Yes

Neutral — 10b5-1 plan sale

Jul 7, 2026

Jonathan S. Beatty

MD, Head of Advisor Services

Trust Sale (S)

2,000

Yes

Neutral — 10b5-1 plan sale

Source: SEC Form 4 filings via Insider Transaction Data. Transaction codes: P = open-market purchase; S = open-market sale; M = option exercise; F = tax withholding; A = award/grant.

Key Observation: CEO Rick Wurster's open-market purchase of 21,959 shares on May 28, 2026 — executed at approximately $85–$90/share (stock was trading in the $85–$92 range in late May) and not under a 10b5-1 plan — is the most meaningful insider signal in the period. This represents a discretionary, non-plan purchase by the CEO at prices well below the current $102.54, suggesting management viewed the post-Q1 selloff as an attractive entry point. All other transactions are routine compensation grants, tax withholding sales, or pre-planned 10b5-1 sales with no directional signal.

Appendix: Key Risks & Considerations