{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.12 vs. cons $5.05",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic sales growth",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.2% vs. cons 2.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating margin before Financial Services",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~21.7% vs. cons 21.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year effective tax rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~22.5% vs. cons 22.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital expenditures",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$100 million vs. cons ~$100 million (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Corporate costs",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$28 million vs. cons ~$28 million (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Tools/storage and technician-demand commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0% Tools organic growth vs. cons 2.0% (Q3 2026 implied run-rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS and organic-growth beat, helped by continued Tools/storage improvement and C&I demand, should produce a positive initial reaction. But unchanged formal outlook and only modest margin upside leave FY2026 and out-year EPS math largely intact: implied FY2026 EPS ~ $20.40 versus pre-report consensus ~ $20.25, limiting estimate revisions and causing the initial gain to stabilize rather than meaningfully follow through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}