SYF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SYF Report Diluted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.15 vs. cons $2.01 MEDIUM
SYF Report Net charge-off rate (Q2 2026, seasonal peak) BEAT pred ~5.45% vs. cons ~5.65% (lower/better) MEDIUM
SYF Report Net interest income IN-LINE pred ~$4.68B vs. cons $4.67B MEDIUM
SYF Guide Full-year 2026 EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$9.10-9.50 (midpoint $9.30) vs. cons $9.34 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SYF Guide Full-year NCO guide BETTER guide ~<5.5% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
SYF Guide Period-end loan receivables growth / H2 re-acceleration UNKNOWN guide ~+low-to-mid-single-digit exiting 2026 vs. cons ~+1-2% (FY2026) LOW
SYF Guide RSA (% of avg receivables) LOWER guide ~4.0-4.5% vs. cons ~4.1% (FY2026) LOW
SYF Guide Capital return (buyback pace + $0.34 dividend) BETTER guide ~$900M/qtr buyback + $0.34 div vs. cons ~$800M/qtr (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
SYF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
SYF Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) A modest EPS beat plus improving credit (NCO below the tough Q2'25 5.70% comp), reaffirmed $9.10-9.50 guide, dividend hike and heavy buyback should drive a relief rally day-1 given the stock is still recovering from the July 8 sector-wide consumer-credit scare. But follow-through is capped: the headline is still down ~20% YoY, rising RSA shares credit upside with partners, and out-quarter estimates already embed the decline, so post-print revisions are flat-to-slightly-down. With the consumer/oil-inflation macro overhang unresolved, the initial pop partially fades over 5 days rather than compounds. LOW