SYF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SYF Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.12 vs. cons $2.00 MEDIUM
SYF Report Net Interest Margin BEAT pred ~15.65% vs. cons 15.40% MEDIUM
SYF Report Net Charge-off Rate IN-LINE pred ~5.55% vs. cons 5.60% MEDIUM
SYF Guide FY26 Diluted EPS Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$9.10-$9.50 vs. cons $9.25 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SYF Guide Ending Loan Receivables Growth (accelerating H2) UNCHANGED guide ~mid-single-digit growth vs. cons ~4-5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
SYF Guide RSA as % of average receivables LOWER guide ~4.3% vs. cons 4.2% (FY2026, i.e. slightly higher RSA drag than consensus modeled) LOW
SYF Guide Buyback pace under new $6.5B program UNCHANGED guide ~$900M-$1.0B/quarter vs. cons ~$900M (Q3 2026) LOW
SYF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
SYF Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) An EPS/credit beat likely drives an initial pop, but rising RSA (revenue-share to retail partners) and expense growth embedded in the FY26 framework mean sell-side will trim out-quarter EPS even after a Q2 beat, similar to the pattern following Q1's beat where shares still drifted lower into July on guidance-math concerns; initial enthusiasm should partially fade as analysts model H2 RSA/opex drag against the reaffirmed (not raised) full-year range. MEDIUM