I'll research AT&T (T) before writing the preview. Let me pull recent earnings materials, news, and analyst expectations.Let me read the most recent earnings call (2026Q1) and release, plus gather the latest guidance and stock price context.Let me get recent stock price action and analyst/consensus context via web search, plus the year-ago Q2 comparison for context.Let me pull the year-ago Q2 2025 release for comparison and check consensus expectations.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

AT&T (T) — 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Reports Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (before open) · Q&A call 8:30 a.m. ET

The one-sentence setup

AT&T heads into this print with fundamentals that have been steadily improving, but a stock that has been cut down by roughly a quarter over the past three months on fears that SpaceX/Starlink — potentially paired with Charter — could open a new front in the wireless/broadband war. The report is less about the quarter's numbers (which are likely fine) and more about whether management can reframe the SpaceX narrative and defend its "acceleration in 2H26" thesis.

1. Why the stock is where it is

This is the dominant story going in. The shares have de-rated hard:

Date	T close
Apr 2, 2026 (recent high)	~$28.33
Apr 22 (Q1 print)	$25.98
Jun 30 (2-yr low)	$20.70
Jul 21 (pre-print)	$22.27

That's roughly –21% from the April peak and a fall to its lowest level in nearly two years. The catalyst was not company-specific execution but a competitive scare: AT&T came under pressure on fears that SpaceX might enter the mobile phone market, with the stock down 7.2% on a single day following reports in late June that Charter Communications and SpaceX discussed partnering on consumer mobile service. AT&T declined ~4.9% on the initial Monday, and a Charter-SpaceX phone partnership could potentially draw consumers away from cellular service providers like AT&T in favor of Starlink's satellite internet and upcoming mobile services.

The sell-side is now split: - Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and an $18 price target, citing SpaceX's Starlink connectivity ambitions as the key debate. - Barclays lowered its target to $24, and Morgan Stanley's Sean Diffley kept an Overweight but cut his target to $25 from $30, arguing the near-term risk of Starlink disrupting the industry is low. - Bears note the overhang may persist until "clarifying events" — namely the FCC's Upper C-band mid-band auction (no later than July 2027) and whether SpaceX renews its direct-to-cell deal with T-Mobile or signs with Verizon/AT&T.

Against a current price of ~$22, the average analyst price target sits near $29, so the market is pricing in meaningful skepticism. What matters on the call: how Stankey frames the satellite threat. On the Q1 call he was notably sanguine — his stated ideal outcome is multiple satellite constellations that AT&T can wholesale from, arguing satellite is a complement that "works really good outdoors… doesn't work very good indoors," while fiber remains "lowest marginal cost, best performance." Expect him to reiterate the AST SpaceMobile partnership stance and his view that AT&T would only pursue an MVNO/wholesale relationship with LEO players "when it gets to a part of the market we can't get to." Any softening or hardening of that tone will move the stock more than the headline EPS.

2. What the Street expects for the quarter

Adjusted EPS: ~$0.59, up ~9.3% from $0.54 a year ago (estimate revised slightly higher into the print).
Revenue: ~$31.8–32.0B, up ~3–4% YoY.
Full-year 2026 EPS consensus ~$2.32 — right in the middle of company guidance of $2.25–$2.35 — with 2027 around $2.52–$2.55.

Note the year-ago comparison is messy: 2Q25 delivered adjusted EPS of $0.54 vs $0.51 the prior year, adjusted EBITDA of $11.7B, and free cash flow of $4.4B, but that was before the DIRECTV stake sale closed (July 2, 2025) and before AT&T re-segmented into Advanced Connectivity / Legacy / Latin America. Focus on the new segment framing.

3. The bull case: momentum was building in Q1, and Q2 was flagged as the inflection

Management explicitly told investors Q2 would be where growth accelerates. Q1 2026 set the table:

Total revenues up 2.9% YoY to $31.5B and service revenues up 1.4%, with adjusted EPS of $0.57 up nearly 12%.
Free cash flow was $2.5B (seasonally the low quarter), with Q2 guided to $4–4.5B and the full year reiterated at $18B+.
Subscribers: 584,000 total fiber and fixed-wireless "advanced internet" net adds — the best-ever first quarter and a sixth straight quarter above 500k, plus 294,000 postpaid phone net adds with postpaid phone ARPU flat year-over-year.
Convergence — the core strategy: 42% of advanced home internet customers also take AT&T wireless, approaching 45% organically ex-Lumen — the fastest-ever YoY convergence growth.
Fiber scale: AT&T now reaches over 37 million fiber locations and is on track for 60 million-plus by the end of the decade, having closed the Lumen transaction ahead of schedule, adding 1.1 million fiber customers and over 4 million fiber locations.

Key metrics to watch vs. the year-ago (old-segment) marks: | Metric | 2Q25 (reported) | |---|---| | Postpaid phone net adds | 401k | | Postpaid phone churn | 0.87% | | Postpaid phone ARPU | $57.04 (+1.1%) | | AT&T Fiber net adds | 243k | | Internet Air net adds | 203k | | Fiber ARPU | $73.26 (+6.2%) |

Watch whether postpaid phone churn continues to normalize (it ticked up to 0.89% in Q1 as the industry "reorders" customers to asset bases) and whether wireless service revenue growth accelerates from Q1's soft +1.7% toward the full-year 2–3% target — management attributed the expected pickup to new converged plans plus pricing actions that took effect in the second quarter.

4. Guidance: the bar management must clear

On the Q1 call AT&T reaffirmed the full-year 2026 framework. Any change here is the second-biggest swing factor after the SpaceX commentary: - Consolidated service revenue: low-single-digit growth; adjusted EBITDA growth of 3–4%. - Adjusted EPS of $2.25–$2.35. - Advanced Connectivity service revenue growth of 5%+ with EBITDA growth of 6%+. - Legacy service revenue declining 20%+ as copper is retired (Legacy EBITDA falling faster, ~40%, given the migration lag).

Given how weak the stock is, a clean reaffirmation with visible Q2 acceleration should be viewed positively; the risk is any hint that competitive intensity or promotional spend is pressuring the back-half ramp.

5. Balance sheet, capital returns, and pending deals

Leverage: Net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 2.71x at Q1 (up from 2.53x) due to the Lumen close; expected to rise to ~3.2x after the EchoStar spectrum deal, then fall to ~3x by year-end 2026 and back toward the 2.5x target within ~3 years.
Buybacks/dividends: AT&T returned $4.3B to shareholders in Q1 and expects ~$8B of repurchases in 2026, part of a $45B+ shareholder-return plan through 2028.
Deals to track: the EchoStar spectrum acquisition (accretive to network performance and Internet Air capacity) and the plan to close a transaction with an equity investor for the acquired Lumen fiber assets in the second half of the year.
Tax tailwind: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a multi-year cash-tax benefit — $6.5–8.0B of cash tax savings across 2025–2027 — funding the accelerated fiber build, pension contributions, and financial flexibility.

6. Bottom line — what to listen for

SpaceX/Starlink & Charter: Stankey's framing of satellite as complement vs. threat, direct-to-cell/AST strategy, and any MVNO posture. This is the whole ballgame for sentiment.
Wireless health: postpaid phone net adds and churn amid a brewing telco price war; evidence April pricing actions are sticking without driving churn.
Convergence rate & fiber net adds: progress past 42%/45%, plus early Lumen-market traction (management guided to a 2H ramp).
Guidance: reaffirmation (or raise) of EBITDA 3–4%, EPS $2.25–$2.35, FCF $18B+, and confirmation that Q2 is the promised acceleration inflection.
Capital allocation: buyback pace, EchoStar close timing, Lumen equity-partner sale, and the leverage path.

With the stock near two-year lows and trading well below the ~$29 average target, expectations on price are low even as earnings expectations are for ~9% growth. That asymmetry means the reaction likely hinges more on the narrative around competition and the credibility of the 2H acceleration than on whether AT&T beats the $0.59 EPS bar.

(Prices via market data through July 21, 2026; estimates per consensus aggregators; fundamentals and guidance per AT&T's 1Q26 earnings release/call and 2Q25 release.)