Report Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (before market open) | Current Price: ~$22.27 (as of 7/21/26)
AT&T shares have had a rough summer. After rallying from the low-$24s in January to nearly $29 in March on strong Q4 results, the stock has since sold off sharply, closing around $22.27 on July 21 — down from levels above $28 in the spring. AT&T came under pressure on fears that SpaceX might enter the mobile phone market, with the stock down 7.2% as of one Tuesday's closing bell following reports in late June that Charter Communications and SpaceX discussed partnering on consumer mobile service. That fear has driven a split in sell-side sentiment: Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall initiated coverage on AT&T with an Underweight rating and an $18 price target, citing SpaceX's Starlink connectivity ambitions as driving the key debate for how the wireless market will change with a new competitor in broadband and likely in mobile, while Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley kept his Overweight rating on AT&T but cut the price target to $25 from $30, saying the near-term risk of Starlink disrupting the industry is low. Barclays also trimmed its target to $24. Heading into print, AT&T (T) will report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, July 22 before the US open. The stock has traded poorly recently due to concerns about SpaceX becoming a larger force in the consumer mobile/broadband market (though currently more a complement than competitor) and intensifying wireless/broadband competition. That backdrop makes tomorrow's print as much about management's response to the Starlink/Charter narrative as it is about the numbers themselves.
Wall Street's consensus rating remains constructive on balance — described as a "Moderate Buy" with a broad analyst base still expecting fundamentals to outrun the bear case, even as price targets have compressed across the board.
Analysts are looking for continued acceleration versus Q1: - Revenue: ~$32.0–32.1 billion, up roughly 3.9%–4.1% year-over-year - Adjusted EPS: ~$0.59, up ~9.3% from $0.54 a year ago - Zacks' model currently points to a likely beat, given AT&T's Earnings ESP is positive and for the last reported quarter, it was expected that AT&T would post earnings of $0.55 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.57, delivering a surprise of +3.64%. The company has topped Street EPS estimates in most recent quarters.
AT&T's Q1 print set an optimistic tone that this quarter needs to build on. Highlights: - Total revenue of $31.5 billion, up 2.9% YoY; adjusted EPS of $0.57, up from $0.51 a year ago - The company closed its acquisition of Lumen's Mass Markets fiber business on February 2, adding 1.1 million fiber customers and over 4 million fiber locations - 42% of households with AT&T's advanced home internet services also chose AT&T wireless; this approaches 45% when excluding the impact of fiber customers acquired during the quarter, up over 3 percentage points year over year, representing the fastest-ever reported organic growth in the advanced home internet convergence rate - 584,000 total internet net adds (fiber + fixed wireless) and 294,000 postpaid phone net adds - Free cash flow of $2.5 billion, at the high end of guidance, reflecting higher capex tied to accelerated fiber build
Critically, management fully reiterated its full-year 2026 and 2028 multi-year guidance, and specifically called for sequential improvement into Q2: For the second quarter, we expect free cash flow in the range of $4 billion to $4.5 billion, and we continue to expect $18 billion plus of free cash flows for the full year. On the topline, we expect second quarter year-over-year wireless service revenue growth to improve from growth reported in the first quarter and maintain our full year outlook for growth in the 2% to 3% range... It also reflects our recent pricing actions that take effect during the second quarter. CFO Pascal Desroches added color on pacing: "Going into Q2 and improving for the rest of the year, we expect both service revenues and EBITDA to accelerate gradually... we have pricing actions that begins to take effect in April. For Q2, it's going to be not the entire quarter that benefits, but most of it."
Key things to verify tomorrow: Did wireless service revenue growth actually accelerate as promised? Did the April pricing actions land without a churn backlash? Is Advanced Connectivity EBITDA growth tracking toward the 6%+ full-year target?
Any deviation from this framework — especially on FCF or EBITDA growth — would be the single biggest swing factor for the stock tomorrow, given how much credibility management has staked on "acceleration through the year."
1. Convergence and net adds. The convergence story (customers who buy both fiber/Internet Air and wireless from AT&T) is the crux of the bull case — management has explicitly tied it to lower churn and higher lifetime value. Watch for progress beyond the ~45% organic convergence rate and continued strength in fiber/fixed-wireless net adds (Q1 was 584,000, the best-ever first quarter).
2. Lumen integration. The Lumen Mass Markets fiber assets are still ramping. Management guided to an "immaterial" EBITDA contribution from Lumen markets in 2026 as they invest to scale distribution, engineering and service delivery — "as we move into the back half of the year, we'll achieve steady improvement in fiber and wireless customer growth in these areas." Investors should look for commentary confirming this trajectory, plus an update on the planned sale of a controlling stake in the Lumen fiber network assets to an equity partner, which AT&T plans to sell a controlling interest to an equity partner that will co-invest in the ongoing business, expected to close in the second half of 2026.
3. Wireless pricing and churn. OneConnect and the "Unlimited Your Way" plan refresh, plus April price increases, are designed to shift the model away from device subsidies toward network value. Postpaid phone churn improved to 0.89% in Q1; watch whether the April pricing action pressures churn back up, and how postpaid ARPU trends (management guided to "relatively stable" ARPU for the year).
4. EchoStar spectrum deal. AT&T's $23 billion spectrum acquisition from EchoStar was expected to close by mid-2026. Management guided that net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA would rise to roughly the 3.2x range upon closing before declining back toward 3x by year-end and to the 2.5x target within ~3 years. Confirmation of deal closing/status and updated leverage trajectory will be a key data point, since Q1-end leverage already stood at 2.71x (up from 2.53x due to Lumen).
5. Copper/Legacy retirement. Legacy revenue fell 25.3% and Legacy EBITDA fell ~40% in Q1 as AT&T decommissions copper; management has FCC approval to discontinue legacy service in over 30% of wire centers. This drag should persist but is a manageable, well-telegraphed headwind.
6. CFO transition. On June 11, 2026, Pascal Desroches announced his retirement as CFO effective December 31, 2026; Jennifer Biry — a longtime AT&T finance veteran and former WarnerMedia and McAfee CFO — was appointed Deputy CFO effective July 6, 2026, and will become CFO on January 1, 2027. This is a low-drama, well-planned succession but worth noting as the first earnings call under the transition period, with both executives potentially on the call.
7. The SpaceX/Starlink overhang. This is the single largest sentiment driver right now. Expect direct questions on the call about Starlink's potential move into mobile (via Charter or otherwise), AT&T's existing AST SpaceMobile partnership, and management's competitive posture. On the Q1 call, CEO John Stankey pre-emptively addressed this dynamic, arguing AT&T's fiber cost/performance advantage and network integration make it structurally positioned regardless of new satellite entrants, and noted he'd prefer multiple satellite competitors in the market rather than one dominant player. How much reassurance (or new information) management offers here will likely matter more for the stock reaction than the reported numbers.
AT&T goes into Q2 earnings with a credible, well-guided acceleration story (convergence, fiber build-out, Lumen scaling, wireless pricing actions) but a stock price that has been pressured almost entirely by a macro/competitive fear — Starlink/SpaceX's potential entry into mobile — rather than by fundamentals. Consensus expects a modest beat-and-raise-type quarter (EPS ~$0.59, revenue ~$32B), consistent with the company's guided sequential acceleration in service revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow ($4–4.5B FCF guided for Q2). The key swing factors for the stock reaction are likely to be: (1) whether the numbers confirm the promised H2 acceleration, (2) any incremental commentary/guidance around EchoStar closing and leverage, and (3) how directly and convincingly management addresses the Starlink/Charter competitive threat that has weighed on the shares since late June.