Report: Wednesday, July 22, 2026, before the market opens
Conference call: 8:30 a.m. ET (about.att.com)
This quarter is less about whether AT&T beats EPS by a cent and more about whether management can demonstrate that its promised second-quarter acceleration is material, sustainable and broad-based.
Investors should focus on five issues:
The stock closed July 21 at approximately $22.27, down about 14% since the Q1 report, 23% below its March high, and 9% year to date. At that price, the annualized $1.11 dividend yields approximately 5.0%, while the stock trades around 9.6 times the current $2.32 consensus 2026 EPS estimate. The valuation is undemanding, but the selloff shows that investors want evidence that AT&T’s growth plan remains defensible.
| Metric | Q2 expectation or guidepost | Q2 2025 / Q1 2026 reference |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.59 consensus | $0.54 / $0.57 |
| Revenue | $32.0–$32.1B consensus | $30.8B / $31.5B |
| Free cash flow | $4.0–$4.5B company outlook | $4.4B / $2.5B |
| Wireless service-revenue growth | Better than Q1's 1.7% | 3.5% in Q2 2025 under prior reporting |
| Consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth | Better than Q1's 2.3% | Q2 2025 EBITDA of $11.7B |
| Consumer fiber net additions | About 312K consensus | 243K / 273K |
| Advanced home internet net additions | Year-over-year improvement | 446K in Q2 2025 / 512K in Q1 2026 |
| Postpaid phone net additions | No clean, widely reported consensus; 300K+ would be reassuring | 401K / 294K |
Wall Street’s headline consensus calls for approximately $0.59 of adjusted EPS and $32.04 billion of revenue, representing growth of roughly 9% and 4%, respectively. The EPS estimate has moved modestly higher over the past month. (zacks.com)
AT&T reaffirmed its outlook in June and specifically said it continued to expect better year-over-year growth in wireless service revenue and consolidated adjusted EBITDA than it reported in Q1, year-over-year improvement in advanced home internet additions, and $4.0–$4.5 billion of Q2 free cash flow.
AT&T entered Q2 with solid subscriber momentum: Q1 postpaid phone net additions were 294,000, churn was 0.89%, and wireless service revenue grew 1.7%. However, postpaid phone ARPU was flat year over year as AT&T added more value-oriented and converged customers. (investors.att.com)
Management implemented wireless pricing actions beginning in April. That should make Q2 the first meaningful test of whether AT&T can accelerate service revenue without damaging customer retention.
Management commentary on OneConnect, refreshed Unlimited Your Way plans and convergence will matter. Investors should look for adoption data rather than broad statements that customers like the offers.
AT&T closed the Lumen mass-market fiber acquisition on February 2, adding approximately 1.1 million fiber customers and more than 4 million fiber locations. Q2 will therefore include a full quarter of those customer relationships, versus only two months in Q1. AT&T ended Q1 reaching more than 37 million consumer and business fiber locations and remains on track to exceed 40 million by year-end. (investors.att.com)
The key distinction is between reported growth and organic operating improvement. The Lumen customers boost revenue and subscriber totals, but management has said the acquired regions should make little EBITDA contribution during 2026 because AT&T is investing in distribution, engineering, construction and service capabilities.
Investors should watch:
In Q1, 42% of advanced home internet customers also had AT&T wireless; excluding the newly acquired Lumen base, the organic convergence rate approached 45%, more than three percentage points higher year over year. A further increase would support management’s argument that fiber improves wireless retention and lifetime value. (investors.att.com)
AT&T’s new segment reporting makes the central earnings tension clearer:
The legacy decline is intentional as AT&T shuts down copper infrastructure, but revenue is currently disappearing faster than associated costs. Until more wire centers are fully decommissioned, Legacy will remain a significant earnings drag. (investors.att.com)
For Q2, investors should expect adjusted EBITDA of roughly $12 billion or better, based on management’s commitment to improve on Q1's 2.3% growth rate and the $11.7 billion reported in Q2 2025.
A high-quality result would include:
An EPS beat caused mainly by below-the-line items or temporary cost timing would be less persuasive than a beat driven by service revenue and segment EBITDA.
AT&T generated $2.5 billion of free cash flow in Q1, at the high end of its guidance, despite higher fiber investment. The company expects $4.0–$4.5 billion in Q2 and more than $18 billion for 2026. Full-year capital investment is expected to be $23–$24 billion. (investors.att.com)
The balance sheet remains important because AT&T expects leverage to rise following its approximately $23 billion EchoStar spectrum acquisition. The FCC approved the spectrum transfer in May, but AT&T’s latest disclosures continued to discuss the transaction as pending. Management expects net debt to adjusted EBITDA to reach approximately 3.2 times after closing, decline to about 3 times by year-end and return to the 2.5-times target area within roughly three years. (attconnects.com)
Questions for the call include:
At the current share price, buybacks are potentially highly accretive, but only if management can execute them without compromising its leverage targets.
AT&T shares sold off sharply in late June and early July after reports that Charter had discussed a potential consumer mobile partnership with SpaceX. Analysts subsequently cut price targets, although views differed on whether satellite connectivity represents an imminent substitute for terrestrial networks or primarily a complementary service.
Management will almost certainly be asked about:
The best response would be concrete: product timelines, network integration plans and an explanation of where satellite complements rather than replaces fiber and terrestrial mobile service. Simply arguing that satellite works poorly indoors will probably not be enough to remove the stock’s overhang.
AT&T’s current 2026 outlook calls for:
The June reaffirmation lowers the likelihood of a major Q2 disappointment, but it also raises the bar for management to deliver the promised acceleration. A simple reiteration should be adequate if the operating metrics are strong. If subscriber growth or churn disappoints, investors may interpret unchanged guidance as increasingly back-end loaded.
Pascal Desroches plans to retire as CFO on December 31, 2026. Jennifer Biry became deputy CFO on July 6 and is scheduled to assume the CFO role on January 1, 2027. She previously served as WarnerMedia CFO and later as CFO and COO of McAfee. Investors should listen for whether Biry participates in the call and whether the transition changes any capital-allocation or reporting priorities. (sec.gov)
The following are analytical thresholds rather than published consensus estimates:
| Outcome | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Bullish | EPS of $0.61+, revenue above $32.1B, FCF near or above $4.5B, 350K+ phone additions, churn at or below 0.90%, fiber additions above 320K, and confident full-year guidance |
| Neutral / acceptable | EPS of $0.59–$0.60, FCF within $4.0–$4.5B, 250K–350K phone additions, fiber additions around 290K–320K, and all major guidance reaffirmed |
| Bearish | EPS of $0.57 or less, FCF below $4B, phone additions below 200K or churn above 0.95%, fiber additions below roughly 275K, weaker buybacks, or more back-end-loaded guidance |
AT&T enters Q2 with a low valuation, a roughly 5% dividend yield and management having reaffirmed its outlook only six weeks ago. That creates a reasonable setup for an earnings beat, but a headline beat alone may not be enough.
The most constructive report would show:
The principal risk is that AT&T delivers the numbers through pricing and cost controls while customer growth, churn or competitive positioning weakens. In that case, investors are unlikely to give the stock much credit for an EPS beat.