TMUS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TMUS Report Postpaid net account additions (Q2) BEAT pred ~275K vs. cons ~262K MEDIUM
TMUS Report Postpaid ARPA growth y/y (Q2) IN-LINE pred ~2.0% vs. cons ~2.1% HIGH
TMUS Report Core Adjusted EBITDA (Q2) IN-LINE pred ~$9.45B vs. cons ~$9.43B MEDIUM
TMUS Guide FY2026 Total Service Revenue guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$77.0B (+8%) vs. cons ~$77.0B (FY2026) HIGH
TMUS Guide FY2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$37.3B midpoint vs. cons ~$37.3B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Guide FY2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$18.4B midpoint vs. cons ~$18.4B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Guide H2 2026 Postpaid ARPA growth reacceleration commentary BETTER guide ~2.75% vs. cons ~2.5% (H2 2026) LOW
TMUS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.3% MEDIUM
TMUS Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) Q2 results/guidance look set to be confirmatory rather than incremental — service revenue, EBITDA and FCF guided ranges are reaffirmed (not raised, unlike the Q1 print that lifted full-year targets), and the flagged ARPA deceleration is largely a known comp/mix issue already telegraphed by management. With the stock already up ~14% off its June 30 low into the print and short interest/positioning likely de-risked after AT&T's strong quarter, an in-line-to-modest-beat quarter without a fresh guidance raise gives algos/revision models little to chew on for follow-through buying; absent new detail on the DT merger or incremental synergy upside, the initial pop is more likely to fade over the week as attention reverts to the Starlink/DT overhang narrative than to build on out-period estimate upgrades. MEDIUM