TMUS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TMUS Report Postpaid net account additions BEAT pred ~280K vs. cons 262K MEDIUM
TMUS Report Core Adjusted EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$9.50B vs. cons $9.43B MEDIUM
TMUS Report Adjusted free cash flow BEAT pred ~$4.68B vs. cons $4.55B MEDIUM
TMUS Guide Postpaid net account additions BETTER guide midpoint ~1.05M vs. cons 1.03M (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Guide Core Adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED guide midpoint ~$37.50B vs. cons $37.50B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Guide Adjusted free cash flow BETTER guide midpoint ~$18.60B vs. cons $18.50B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Guide Postpaid ARPA growth UNCHANGED guide midpoint ~2.75% vs. cons 2.75% (FY2026) MEDIUM
TMUS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.7% MEDIUM
TMUS Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.3% (FADE) The initial customer-growth and cash-flow beats should support a rerating, but FY2026 EBITDA guidance near ~$37.50B versus consensus ~$37.50B implies limited out-period estimate revisions; strong peer subscriber results also temper the share-gain signal, causing part of the day-1 move to fade. MEDIUM