TSCO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSCO Report Comparable Store Sales (Q2 FY26) MISS pred ~-1.5% vs. cons +0.8% MEDIUM
TSCO Report Diluted EPS (Q2 FY26) MISS pred ~$0.78 vs. cons $0.84 MEDIUM
TSCO Report Net Sales / Revenue (Q2 FY26) MISS pred ~$4.50B vs. cons $4.60B MEDIUM
TSCO Guide FY2026 EPS Guidance LOWER guide ~$1.95-$2.00 vs. cons/prior guide $2.13-$2.23 (FY2026) HIGH
TSCO Guide FY2026 Comparable Sales Guidance LOWER guide ~0%-1% vs. prior guide/cons +1% to +3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSCO Guide H2 FY2026 Gross Margin / Operating Margin commentary LOWER guide ~9.0%-9.3% operating margin vs. prior guide/cons 9.3%-9.6% (FY2026) LOW
TSCO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.0% MEDIUM
TSCO Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A guidance reset (FY26 EPS cut toward ~$1.90-$2.00 and comp guide trimmed) confirms the bear case that sell-side models (Wolfe, BofA, UBS, TD Cowen) had already flagged, but 'official' consensus (Zacks/StockStory ~$0.84 EPS, ~$4.6B revenue) still needs to catch down over the following days as analysts publish post-print model updates and further PT cuts, mechanically dragging out-period (Q3/Q4 FY26) EPS and comp estimates lower even if Q2 itself is roughly in line with the already-bearish whisper numbers. This estimate-revision drag, plus continued negative pet-category and traffic data, argues for continued downside pressure (follow-through) rather than an immediate 'kitchen-sink' relief bounce, though the magnitude of follow-through is tempered by how much bad news (40%+ decline, Strong Sell rank, $38 avg PT still above spot) is already priced in. LOW