| TSLA |
Report |
Total revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$29.0B vs. cons ~$26.5B |
HIGH |
| TSLA |
Report |
Automotive gross margin ex-credits |
MISS |
pred ~14.5% vs. cons ~16.0% |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.40 vs. cons ~$0.45 |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Guide |
FY2026 capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~>$25B vs. cons ~$24B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Guide |
FY2026 free cash flow trajectory |
LOWER |
guide ~-$3B vs. cons ~-$1B (FY2026, negative for rest of year) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Guide |
FY2026 delivery/volume framing |
BETTER |
guide ~1.70M vs. cons ~1.65M (FY2026, return to growth) |
LOW |
| TSLA |
Guide |
Robotaxi/Optimus revenue materiality |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$0 material vs. cons ~$0 (FY2026; impact a 2027 story) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Delivery beat was pre-run and already public; the print hinges on margin quality and roadmap. A low-quality auto GM ex-credits (tariff/subvention/mix + credit fade) plus an EPS miss and reaffirmed ~$25B capex/negative-FCF guide force out-period estimate cuts (lower margins and FCF), while Robotaxi/Optimus lack concrete milestones and the SpaceX valuation overhang weighs. Sell-the-news continues, so the day-1 decline follows through lower over the week rather than reversing. |
LOW |