{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$29.0B vs. cons ~$26.5B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Automotive gross margin ex-credits",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~14.5% vs. cons ~16.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.40 vs. cons ~$0.45",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~>$25B vs. cons ~$24B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 free cash flow trajectory",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-$3B vs. cons ~-$1B (FY2026, negative for rest of year)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 delivery/volume framing",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~1.70M vs. cons ~1.65M (FY2026, return to growth)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Robotaxi/Optimus revenue materiality",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$0 material vs. cons ~$0 (FY2026; impact a 2027 story)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Delivery beat was pre-run and already public; the print hinges on margin quality and roadmap. A low-quality auto GM ex-credits (tariff/subvention/mix + credit fade) plus an EPS miss and reaffirmed ~$25B capex/negative-FCF guide force out-period estimate cuts (lower margins and FCF), while Robotaxi/Optimus lack concrete milestones and the SpaceX valuation overhang weighs. Sell-the-news continues, so the day-1 decline follows through lower over the week rather than reversing.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}