TSLA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSLA Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$28.4B vs. cons $27.6B MEDIUM
TSLA Report Automotive Gross Margin ex-credits MISS pred ~18.0% vs. cons ~19.2% MEDIUM
TSLA Report Non-GAAP EPS IN-LINE pred ~$0.55 vs. cons $0.55 LOW
TSLA Guide FY2026 CapEx UNCHANGED guide ~$25B+ vs. cons $25B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide Robotaxi/FSD monetization timeline UNCHANGED guide 'material in 2027, not super material in 2026' vs. cons hoping for acceleration to H2 2026 (FY2026-27) LOW
TSLA Guide Full-year delivery/production growth outlook BETTER guide implied FY2026 delivery growth low-teens % vs. cons prior flat-to-up-mid-single-digit % (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide Free Cash Flow path LOWER guide reiterated negative FCF through 2026 vs. cons expectation of near breakeven by Q4 (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.2% MEDIUM
TSLA Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.4% (FADE) Auto margin erosion from discount/financing-driven volume prompts sell-side to trim FY26-27 EPS (out-period math offsetting the revenue/delivery beat), producing an initial negative reaction; but given TSLA's pattern this cycle (initial delivery-beat selloff reversing into a Musk-complex/AI-narrative rally), speculative buying tied to Optimus/Robotaxi/SpaceX headlines partially reclaims losses over the week, capping full follow-through and leaving a modest net negative residual rather than a deeper cumulative decline. LOW