| TSLA |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$28.4B vs. cons $27.6B |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Report |
Automotive Gross Margin ex-credits |
MISS |
pred ~18.0% vs. cons ~19.2% |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.55 vs. cons $0.55 |
LOW |
| TSLA |
Guide |
FY2026 CapEx |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$25B+ vs. cons $25B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Guide |
Robotaxi/FSD monetization timeline |
UNCHANGED |
guide 'material in 2027, not super material in 2026' vs. cons hoping for acceleration to H2 2026 (FY2026-27) |
LOW |
| TSLA |
Guide |
Full-year delivery/production growth outlook |
BETTER |
guide implied FY2026 delivery growth low-teens % vs. cons prior flat-to-up-mid-single-digit % (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Guide |
Free Cash Flow path |
LOWER |
guide reiterated negative FCF through 2026 vs. cons expectation of near breakeven by Q4 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TSLA |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.4% (FADE) |
Auto margin erosion from discount/financing-driven volume prompts sell-side to trim FY26-27 EPS (out-period math offsetting the revenue/delivery beat), producing an initial negative reaction; but given TSLA's pattern this cycle (initial delivery-beat selloff reversing into a Musk-complex/AI-narrative rally), speculative buying tied to Optimus/Robotaxi/SpaceX headlines partially reclaims losses over the week, capping full follow-through and leaving a modest net negative residual rather than a deeper cumulative decline. |
LOW |