TSLA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSLA Report Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS MISS pred ~$0.53 vs. cons $0.55 MEDIUM
TSLA Report Q2 2026 total gross margin MISS pred ~19.0% vs. cons 19.5% MEDIUM
TSLA Report Q2 2026 free cash flow BEAT pred ~-$2.6B vs. cons -$3.25B LOW
TSLA Guide FY2026 non-GAAP EPS implied outlook LOWER guide ~$2.00 vs. cons $2.08 (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide FY2026 capital expenditures UNCHANGED guide ~$25.5B vs. cons $25.3B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide FY2026 vehicle deliveries outlook BETTER guide ~1.75M vs. cons 1.729M (FY2026) LOW
TSLA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.1% MEDIUM
TSLA Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Day-5 residual ~-7.2% vs. day-1 residual -5.1%; weaker normalized automotive profitability and implied FY2026 EPS of ~$2.00 vs. $2.08 consensus should drive downward revisions despite better quarterly free cash flow. MEDIUM