TSLA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSLA Report Q2 revenue BEAT pred ~$25.6B vs. cons $25.0B MEDIUM
TSLA Report Q2 non-GAAP diluted EPS MISS pred ~$0.52 vs. cons $0.58 MEDIUM
TSLA Report Q2 free cash flow MISS pred ~-$1.3B vs. cons -$0.5B HIGH
TSLA Guide FY2026 capital expenditures LOWER guide ~$27.0B vs. cons $24.5B (FY2026) HIGH
TSLA Guide FY2026 vehicle deliveries BETTER guide ~2.05M vs. cons 1.98M (FY2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide Robotaxi operating footprint UNCHANGED guide ~12 states vs. cons 12 states (by 4Q2026) MEDIUM
TSLA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.5% MEDIUM
TSLA Return 5-day cumulative residual -10.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~$0.06 EPS shortfall and ~$0.8B incremental FCF deficit versus consensus would make the delivery beat look commercially expensive. FY2026 capex of ~$27.0B versus ~$24.5B consensus implies lower out-period FCF and earnings power, driving negative revisions even if the Robotaxi footprint remains ~12 states versus ~12 expected. MEDIUM