{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$25.6B vs. cons $25.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 non-GAAP diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.52 vs. cons $0.58",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 free cash flow",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-$1.3B vs. cons -$0.5B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capital expenditures",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$27.0B vs. cons $24.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 vehicle deliveries",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.05M vs. cons 1.98M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Robotaxi operating footprint",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~12 states vs. cons 12 states (by 4Q2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -6.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -10.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A ~$0.06 EPS shortfall and ~$0.8B incremental FCF deficit versus consensus would make the delivery beat look commercially expensive. FY2026 capex of ~$27.0B versus ~$24.5B consensus implies lower out-period FCF and earnings power, driving negative revisions even if the Robotaxi footprint remains ~12 states versus ~12 expected.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}