TSLA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSLA Report Auto Gross Margin ex-credits (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~18.5% vs. cons 18.07% MEDIUM
TSLA Report Diluted EPS Operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.57 vs. cons $0.552 MEDIUM
TSLA Report Energy Storage Deployed (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~13,500 MWh vs. cons 14,231 MWh HIGH
TSLA Guide CapEx FY2026 UNCHANGED guide reaffirm >$25B vs. cons ~$25.5B (UNVERIFIED) MEDIUM
TSLA Guide FCF FY2026 UNCHANGED guide reaffirm negative rest of year vs. cons -$2.58B Q2 HIGH
TSLA Guide Optimus SOP (qualitative) BETTER confirm SOP begun/imminent vs. no consensus MEDIUM
TSLA Guide Deliveries FY2026 (qualitative) UNCHANGED bullish color, no formal number vs. cons 1.70M units MEDIUM
TSLA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
TSLA Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — beat fades partially as CapEx/FCF overhang reasserts; archetype B 5-day avg -0.4%, adjusted up for oversold entry LOW