| TXN |
Report |
Q2 Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.35B vs. cons $5.21B |
MEDIUM |
| TXN |
Report |
Q2 EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.05 vs. cons $1.92 |
MEDIUM |
| TXN |
Report |
Q2 Gross Margin |
IN-LINE |
pred ~60.0% vs. cons 59.6% |
MEDIUM |
| TXN |
Guide |
Q3 Revenue Guide (midpoint) |
BETTER |
guide ~$5.6B vs. cons ~$5.5B (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TXN |
Guide |
Q3 EPS Guide (midpoint) |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.10 vs. cons ~$2.06 (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| TXN |
Guide |
FY26 FCF/share framing |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$8+/sh vs. cons ~$8/sh (FY2026) |
LOW |
| TXN |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| TXN |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FADE) |
Even on a Q2 beat and a modestly above-seasonal Q3 guide, the ~64% YTD run and premium multiple make 'sell-the-news' the base case: consensus already sits above the guide midpoint, so the beat is priced in and the burden falls on H2 durability. With management likely staying cautious on second-half breadth (2025 'false start' still fresh, auto/China soft) and depreciation/Silicon Labs charges capping GAAP EPS revisions, out-quarter estimates get only marginal upward revision — insufficient to support the valuation. Rich entry + muted revisions + soft-tone risk drive continued de-rating over the week. |
LOW |